Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
AL West
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
Houston Astros -200/ 91.5
Los Angeles Angels +375/ 84.5
Seattle Mariners +450/ 84.5
Texas Rangers +1400/ 73.5
Oakland Athletics +1800/ 67.5
Seattle Mariners – The Mariners added a ton of pieces to a team that won 90 games in 2021. The biggest addition being 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray joining the rotation. He has had a few good years followed by regression in the past, but looking at the metrics that is behind him. He is a top 5 pitcher in the majors and will continue to be that. The team also has an up and coming ace in Logan Gilbert and proven if not flashy pieces in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen giving them a solid top 4. The lineup is full of new additions in trade pieces Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez and Adam Frazier. It also has young home grown talent, which if they figure things out could make this the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball. Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are both top prospects. Kelenic got a taste last year and Julio was just announced as making the opening day roster. The bullpen will be a committee approach, but has four really good pieces in Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Ken Giles, and Diego Castillo. Prediction 88-74
Houston Astros – The cheating Astros even after all the scrutiny they received, managed to win their third AL pennant in five years. Their top to bottom lineup is probably still the best in the division as Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez took a step forward in 2021 and added a bunch of pop to what Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel brought to the table. The rotation gets Justin Verlander back and adds Jake Odorizzi in place of the departed Zack Greinke. The bullben is still solid with the two Ryan(Ryne’s) Pressley and Stanek at the back end. Not much changed other than Verlander coming back overall and the division competition is better at the top. I look for Houston to take a step back in 2022. Prediction 87-75
Los Angeles Angels – Shohei Ohtani the pitcher and the batter are the most exciting thing happening in baseball right now. The MVP hit 46 Home Runs, had a .965 OPS, stole 26 bags, oh and also went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA and struck out 156 batters in 130 IP. The rest of the team last year was much less exciting. If Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon can somehow stay on the field for the whole season this team is primed to take a run at the division. The rotation added Noah Syndergaard who will look to get back to his former dominance, and the bullpen added Raisel Iglesias. All and all this team is much better than last year. The key will be if they can stay healthy. Prediction 86-76
Texas Rangers – The Rangers have made some lineup improvements getting Marcus Semien, Corey Seagar, Brad Miller, MItch Garver and Kole Calhoun this off-season. The problem is the rotation isn’t great. It is possible Jon Gray has a nice season now that he is out of Coors, but the 2-5 guys are below average. Joe Barlow leads a below average bullpen. They will have to outscore their opponents to win almost every night, but should be fun to watch. Prediction 70-92
Oakland Athletics – The A’s are in full rebuild, and Let’s move to Vegas mode. They traded away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chriss Bassitt, Sean Manaea. Frankie Montas won’t be far behind. But at least they resigned Jed Lowrie! They will not be good. End of story. Prediction 60-102
My Free plays on the AL East are as follows:
I don’t even know how I put the Mariners down for less wins than they had last year, but it’s where I landed. No one in baseball did more to improve themselves this off-season and I wouldn’t be shocked if they rip off 95 to 100 wins. It all depends on how those young bats get up to speed. I also don’t understand how the Astros have about the same odds to win the division as the White Sox. It makes no sense. There is value here in fading the Astros. Lots of action for me on the AL West
Seattle Mariners to win division + 450 1.5 Units
Los Angeles Angels to win division +375 1.5 Units
Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs +155 2 Units
Seattle Mariners over 84.5 wins – 2 units
Oakland A’s under 67.5 wins – 1.5 Units (I got this last week before Manaea trade at 70.5)
