Tonight we have a lower total of 8 as PHI looks to win their series in MIL and keep their playoff hopes alive. The total opened juiced to the UN (-115) but now 8 is juiced to the OV (-118) with 61% of the $ still on the UN (moved from 64% at start of me writing this). That tells me some respected OV money is coming in, but not enough to have oddsmakers move the line. A case could be made for the UN as pitchers Kyle Gibson and Freddy Peralta are both capable of shutting lineups down.
Looking at the pitchers’ recent outings… Gibson got lit up for 8 ER’s in his last appearance against MIA. Peralta got 2 ER’s in 2 innings of work in his L2 showings against the Cardinals. There’s a few other stats and trends that have me looking at the over. PHI has only gone UN four times in their L15 games. MIL has only gone UN three of their L8. Since the all-star break, MIL has the highest BA v. RHP in the league. PHI is 4th in MLB in runs v RHP in that time frame.
Philly has been hot lately winning seven of their L10 to stay alive in the wild card. I don’t expect they’ll be an easy out tonight. Although the PHI bullpen has been better of late, we all know what they’re capable of. Add to that, we also have wind blowing out to CF tonight at American Family Field. I think there’s a case to be made for the over 8 tonight, could move to 8 1/2 before first pitch!
PHI/ MIL OV 8 (-118) – 1.18u
Follow more of my plays if interested on the Action Network app @ kris_lundborg (trying to be better about posting my plays there)
