I like way too many games on Tuesday. There’s quite a bit of value on the board and today only, I’ll give them all out to you for free if you follow and direct message me on Twitter. You can sign up for all my plays here at Theoddsbreakers.com if you like what you see.
My Play today with analysis here @Theoddsbreakers is Game 2 between the White Sox and Indians at the Mistake on the Lake. Dylan Cease goes for the White Sox and Konnor Pilkington gets the ball for the Guardians.
Pilkington is due for a visit from the Regression Fairies. He is currently rocking at 4.08 ERA, but is only allowing 5.0% HR/FB which is well under league average. Line that up with his barrel rate which puts him in the bottom 5% of qualified pitchers and there’s disaster looming on the horizon. Why do I think it’s going to happen tonight? Well for one, the forecast has the winds dying down a bit for game 2 and shifting from blowing in to blowing across left to right. For two, if you haven’t heard me or any other capper say it before, the White Sox HAMMER lefties. They are currently hitting .288 vs left handed pitching and have a .798 OPS. Both of those are tops in MLB.
The Guardians strike out the least of any team in MLB and it isn’t even close. There is something to be said for plate discipline, but it won’t help them tonight against Dylan Cease. He is striking out over 13 batters per 9 IP, and while he still walks too many guys for my liking he is just dominating opposing teams right now. In his last 8 starts over 45+ innings he has allowed just 3 earned runs. (There was a clunker in there vs LAD but all 6 runs unearned) While the Guardians have a star in Jose Ramirez they are really struggling at the dish recently. In their last 20 games they are averaging just 3.4 runs per game and have been held to 3 or fewer runs 14 times.
I’m playing the White Sox F5 -165 for 1.5 Units. I don’t trust Cease to go deep due to pitch counts and I don’t trust the White Sox bullpen.
