My Free play for Tuesday is on the Phillies/Nationals game in Philly at 6:05 Central.
Josiah Gray was one of the major trade pieces to come over along with Keibert Ruiz from the Dodgers in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer deal and he gets the ball for the Nats tonight. Gray has shown massive improvement over the course of the season. After allowing 19 Home Runs over 10 starts to begin the year he left May with a 5.08 ERA. His four June starts were spectacular including one against these Phillies. He allowed just 2 Home Runs across 24 innings while striking out 28 batters and rocking a 1.13 ERA in those June starts. Last trip out he got rocked by the Marlins on Friday for 6 Earned runs. So which pitcher will show up tonight?
To answer that question I am looking strictly at the Phillies tonight. Even without Bryce Harper in the lineup the Phillies continue rake. Since he went down the Phils are averaging 6.5 Runs per game. The wind will be calm in Philly on Wednesday, maybe even blowing in slightly, however it will be 85 degrees and humid at first pitch. Citizen’s Bank Park has a slight positive metric for Home Runs and I think Gray serves some up tonight as his ground ball rate is only 27.4% while his fly ball rate is at 48.8%. Look for Philly to enact some revenge on Gray.
I am on the Phillies team total over 4.5 Runs -115.
