926 Phillies F5 RL -0.5 (-120)* vs Rangers
Seeing some money come in on the Rangers today bringing this ML down from -190 which I do understand. Phillies have been a perennial disappointment since they made those few big signings a couple of years ago. Phillies issues still look like they stem from hitting gone stale at times and an undependable bullpen. Martin Perez is coming off an outstanding start for the Rangers and has improved in each of his starts, which may explain the money on the Rangers tonight.
The Phillies will send Zach Wheeler, who typically does better at home and is also off a good outing. Looking at the hitting splits, we have the Phillies who are hitting 8th best vs LHP and the Rangers who are still hitting 5th worst vs RHP. When looking at favorites who are lined at least at -150, they are hitting at almost 65%, 77-42. Looking at those teams SU in the F5 we see they are 66-31-22, with a nicer 68% hit rate. These F5 wins average over a 1 run margin as well so that has me looking towards the less juicy F5 RL with Philly. Perez also has a tendency to give up the longball and wind is blowing out tonight to RF in Philly so I couldn’t blame anyone looking to take some hitting props on either side as both teams are plenty capable of putting up runs.
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