We had one hell of a weekend. Almost all of my plays in sports gambling are 1-2 Units. I don’t have a 10 Unit Play of the century or a NFL 25 Unit Game of the week. Every once in a while you’ll see me throw a 2.5 or 3 unit play out there on something I really like. So for me to compile a +14.1 Unit weekend is a rarity. We started it off with a 7-1 College Football Saturday, and followed it up with a 5-3 NFL slate yesterday. Then we cashed our MLB Season Win Total futures last night at 4-2. I have one more play for Monday night to hopefully cap it all off.
This week’s Free Play travels to Detroit, Michigan to see the Detroit Lions (2-1) host the Seattle Seahawks (3-0) Kickoff is at 8:15 ET Current Lines: Detroit -4 Over/Under 47
The Mike McDonald era in Seattle has started off swimmingly. The Seahawks sit at 3-0 with victories over Denver, New England and Miami. Those teams sit now with a combined record of 4-7. Detroit is at 2-1 with victories over the Rams and Cardinals and a home loss to the Bucs. Combined opponents record of 5-7.
In 2023 Mike McDonald led the best effort of the year for defenses playing the Lions when he was the DC in Baltimore as his defense held the Lions to six points while limiting them to 65 first half yards as they built a 28-0 lead. Can he replicate the same game plan with the Seahawks? His defense is the #1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed up to this point. It’s early in the season so sometimes these numbers can be a little skewed.
The Seahawks defense got Bo Nix Week 1 in his regular season NFL debut where he put out 3.3 Yards per pass attempt. Week 2 saw Jacoby Brissett in Foxboro bump that up to 5.5 YPA. In Week 3 they got a combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle in holding Miami to three points. What I am saying is this defense has yet to be tested in 2024 with the best offense they have faced being Miami who has 4.9 Yards per play on average, but that’s only because Tua played Week 1 and 2.
Detroit on the other hand has faced Matthew Stafford with a healthy Cooper Kupp, where they did struggle a little bit against the pass. In their Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers they held Baker Mayfield and company to 216 Total Yards. Week 3 they completely shut down Kyler Murray and the Cards holding them to 277 total yards. These offenses rank 10th, 17th and 19th in Yards per play showing much better than the lot that the Seahawks have faced.
Offensively the Seahawks faced Denver’s #2 ranked defensive unit where they got to just over 300 yards. The Patriots unit with is 27th in Yards per play allowed where they were held under 300 yards in regulation, and Miami’s 27th ranked unit where they got to 370 Yards.
The Lions also faced two poor defenses in Arizona and the Rams where they got to 350 yards both games, and the Bucs 17th ranked unit. They put up 463 yards vs Tampa, butthey were done in by not being able to cash in on Touchdowns and then needing to get in the endzone late in the game.
Those are the basic facts, but again how much can we gleam off those basic numbers? Not as much as we can some deep dive statistics and news.
This Seattle O-Line didn’t pan out like they were hoping in the pre-season with Abraham Lucas still out from Off-season surgery and Christian Haynes not working out like they hoped. Pass blocking for Seattle has been as issue, and I certainly think it will be tonight again. The Seahawks are 29th ranked in pass blocking while the Lions are at third overall in pass rush grade through three games. The Seahawks offense is 24th in Rush EPA while the Lions defense checks in at third in the NFL here as well.
A lot of people are looking at the Frank Ragnow injury on the offensive line for the Lions at Center as key. Sure it will affect them, but pointing to their offensive dropoff in games he missed in 2023 may not be fair as one injury occured vs Baltimore and the other game he missed was against a good Bears defense. Most teams offensive outputs sink against those units right Josh Allen?
Much bigger issues are occurring in the Seattle front seven with DTs Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy both ruled out and EDGE rushers Boya Mafe and Uchenna Nwose joining them on the sidelines. Nwose hasn’t played yet this season, but Mafe leads the Seahawks in both Sacks and pressures. With these four players out they are going to struggle to get Jared Goff out of his comfort zone and he can carve up secondaries when he has time. Starting inside LB Jerome Baker is also listed as questionable and may miss the game.
Between the Seahawks defensive front seven injuries and the advantage the Lions already have in the trenches when they’re on defense I believe the Seahawks are going to be in for a long night.
This line has been all over the place opening at 5.5 and dipping down to 3.5 where I bet it. It got back up to 4.5 and has now settled in again at -4. Detroit is buzzing with the Tigers making the MLB playoffs and the Lions are 6-2 in their last eight games as home favorites. I still like this at -4 and am recommending a play here.
Detroit Lions -4 1.5 Units
