Heat/Blazers under 222 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Blazers have a kushy schedule to start the season and somehow they’re finally playing some defense. Top 10 in DEF EFF and exceptional at limiting second-chance opportunities to their opponents, Portland has started off looking disciplined and stingy on the defensive side of the ball. Josh Hart and Jerami Grant have certainly helped in that regard, too. The Heat are typically good in these tough road spots and they lean on stellar defensive effort to get it done. I have this total ar 217– gotta take an under.
Hornets/Knicks over 226, to win 2.5 units
I don’t see this total out yet anywhere but when it does come out, take it if it’s anything at 232 or less. I have this total set at 240. The Knicks are running faster; Thibs made it clear that’s what they want to do and an aggressive Jalen Brunson only helps. The Hornets run even faster historically on the road and they’ll try to out-pace a more physical Knicks’ team. One hand feeds the other– love points here. This is why a flat-unit model doesn’t work; as handicappers we need to know when to pull the trigger on a bigger play. My disparity is too significant to not play big on this wager. It’s early so we won’t go 3 units or more, but 2.5 units feels right.
Jazz -6 (-110), to win 1 unit
The only loss the Jazz had this year? Against the piss-poor Rockets in their opener. The Jazz are8 apparently a formidable outfit and the Rockets are not, and this is a good spot for a little early revenge. Conley and Markennen in particular look like a comfortable duo. Jazz roll. This line could go down in favor of Houston so it’s up to you if you want to wait. I’m content with taking it for 1 unit now.
Nuggets -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The up and down Nuggets love to show their bipolar personality but this is a great spot, at home, against the God-awful Lakers to put on a show. One of the reasons why the Lakers just can’t sustain wins is that, despite how bad they are, teams never treat them like a bad team because of Lebron. A motivated Nuggets should easily handle LAL.
