Well I’m up late, can’t sleep, and obviously pretty fucking pissed about the Tuesday night results and how we fared. And unlike the many robotic dorks in this industry, I actually give a fuck and feel the pain when I lose units for your guys.
Onto the next —
Celtics/Hawks under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This checks out as a game that’ll have a playoff-like feel. Both teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency over their last 5 games and both teams are playing some damn good basketball. I also like how they match up with each other defensively, length against length and physical players on both rosters. No team shoots and makes more 3 pointers than the Boston Celtics but the Hawks are 2nd in the NBA at defending the 3, allowing only 32% from beyond the arc. The Hawks much prefer to shoot from the mid-range or in closer proximity to the basket– they’re a 2-point shooting team that wants to go to the foul line– and Boston is easily one of the best paint defenses in the NBA. It’s strength vs. strength and both teams are humming so this should be very contentious. Give me the under.
Bulls/Pelicans over 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
A lot to like about this over. Chicago’s defense has regressed tremendously, they’re a bottom 5 unit the last 5 games, and they allowed this very same Pelicans team to score 115 points against them a few nights ago EVEN THO the Pels only hit 16% from beyond the arc. That’s wild. The Bulls have also increased their pace and without Zion, the Pelicans were crazy explosive and high-tempo last night against Memphis. If Zion plays fine, even more scoring opportunities and the Bulls can’t stop the big boy. Love the over.
Nuggets 1H -4.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Nuggets 1Q ML (Odds Not Out), to win 1 unit
Knicks/Nuggets 1H over 117 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Fortunately we can cancel the 1H play since the 1H lines aren’t out yet. Jokic just got COVID so we can’t bet on the full half, but we’ll look to bet on the over in the 1H instead. Jokic actually didn’t contribute to the Nuggets’ last win very much, so they got a practice run in for what they want to do. Regardless, I like them to run fast without their big boy in the paint. Denver’s lineup just got smaller, and the Knicks just played hard last night in a win (to our detriment). The first thing to go in back to back games is usually defense. No team scores more points in the 1st QTR than Denver and I think a more spry unit can run them off the floor early. NYK got a big win last night but this won’t be so easy. I think we see points and early success for Denver.
Raptors +1.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I think Gary Trent Jr. and Freddie Van Fleet will be back tomorrow. Both are questionable, so I’m counting at least one being in. That’ll make a big difference against Miami. The Heat have been on one hell of a run at home but going to Toronto is a different story. According to reports, Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon are questionable for Miami, and Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Omer Yurtseven have all been ruled out. At home, Toronto is a top 5 offense, a top 10 net rating team, a top 5 rebounding and assist team, and they don’t turn the ball over. Nick Nurse is among the best coaches in the NFL and Miami is due for regression or maybe even a full sitting of their bench. Take the Raptors when this comes out.
Warriors ML (+105), to win 1.57 units
I think this could be one of those games where the Warriors put it all together. Their defense, assist ratio, effective field goal percentage and net rating has been top 5 in the last 5 games. They’re starting to hum and Chris Paul will be cold if he comes back and plays. It’s also a revenge spot. Go Dub-Nation! Not overthinking it.
