Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Here’s a free pick today while you open up presents, get fat and drink your ass off– I’m not the only one doing that, right? Let’s go!
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NFL Circa Picks: 49-25-1 (66%)
NBA: 105-90 (54%), +16.12 units
Lakers -1.5 (-110), 2 units: I expect this line to rise more before tipoff. LeBron James called his team out after a BAD double-digit loss to the Spurs on Thursday night, saying, “We have no chemistry with any lineup, from the simple fact that we literally haven’t logged enough minutes. It’s the truth. What is our starting lineup besides me Russ and AD? We don’t know.” And it’s evident. The Lakers often look disjointed with their new roster, a roster that’s seen the most turnover of any franchise before the start of the 2022 season. Only 3 players from last year’s roster returned leading up to the opener, and now whispers of trading Russell Westbrook have been circulating for weeks. Russ, the enigmatic journeyman who might be the most explosive pound-for-pound athlete in the NBA, just doesn’t look like the right fit in LA. When LeBron replaces Russ as point guard, the Lakers are fluid. The ball is passed around with efficacy and usually they find an open shot. With Russ? Not so much. Russ loves to fly down the court and dish the ball out with ferocity, a style of basketball that stands contrary to how LAL found success in the recent past. The NBA’s #1 defense in 2021, LAL ran a methodical, judicious style of offense and played pestering, contentious defense. This year the Lakers are the fastest team in the association and they’re 28th in the NBA in turnovers, giving up the ball 16 times per contest. That’s not good, and much of that is Russ. Westbrook averages 4.6 turnovers per game, second only to James Harden for the worst mark in the NBA.
The Nets, again the favorites to win the championship at the start of this season, have been volatile as well. Kyrie Irving is as weird as always (the Earth is flat, huh Kyrie? Cool cool…) and as soon as it was announced that he would return as a part-time player, he succumbed to COVID protocols. Shocker. Irving is out today, and so is Kevin Durant. Durant is leading the NBA is points per game (29.7) and he has a 52.3% field goal percentage. The latter statistic is really impressive, considering his 556 shot attempts are considerably more than the 17 other players who have better percentage marks than Durant. Putting it simply, Durant will be hugely missed today against an angry Lakers squad. James Harden will lead a Nets team that’s been uncharacteristically predicated on playing great defense, ranked 5th in the NBA. They rank 13th in offensive efficiency, which makes sense considering all the variance on their roster. Durant can’t do it all, and today Brooklyn will try to eke out a win without their superstar.
This game sets up really well for the Lakers. They’re at home, Durant is out, LeBron is mad and being vocal about it, and they’re below .500 heading into their Christmas matchup. LeMarcus Aldridge will also be out today; he’s played really well at the center position for Brooklyn. Aldridge may be a more significant loss than Durant, since the Lakers love to push the ball in the paint and should experience little resistance today against the depleted Nets. There’s just too much stacked against Brooklyn today and, for my money, I’d rather wager on one of the best players of all time to step up in a prime spot. Take LAL.
