Our first night betting the NBA Finals was a good one– our picks went 3-0! Hoping for more of the same as we’ve seen these two elite teams and their tendencies all year. If you ever have any questions or you’re interested in my premium picks, hit me up on Twitter!
Bucks 1st QTR +1.5 (-115), 1.15 units and
Giannis over 42.5 P/A/R (-120), 2 units and
under 220.5 (-110), 2 units:
Even though this is only the second game of the NBA Finals, it already feels more pivotal. The Suns and Bucks each came out excited and confident in the 1st quarter of game one, scoring 56 points and playing at a hyper-aggressive pace. They also scored a combined 62 points in the third quarter and 55 points in the fourth. While I expect some soaring offense in spurts tonight, two of the NBA’s best defenses will make significant adjustments in game two. Giannis and his bullish energy in the front court, along with Middleton’s constant infiltration and execution of mid-range shots, could spell deadly results for the Suns tonight. The last thing Phoenix wants is to let this game go back to Fiserv Forum all tied up at 1-1. Expect more clamps from the Suns and expect the same thing from Milwaukee. The Bucks can’t allow Ayton and Paul and Booker to all have big games again. The Suns “big 3,” and it may be time to start calling them that, combined for 81 of their 118 points on Tuesday. That’s 69%! The Bucks cannot continue to allow that sort of production from Phoenix’s stars. I’m on the under in this one.
When we review the statistics from game one, nothing really jumps out in the Suns’ advantage despite the fact that they beat Milwaukee by double-digits. Sure they were worlds ahead of the Bucks in free throw percentage (Crowder ruined a perfect free throw shooting game when he missed his second shot at the charity stripe in the game’s final minutes), but that hasn’t spelled disaster for Milwaukee in the past. The reality is, despite how closely fought Tuesday’s game was, the Suns were just more efficient and more effective in those intangible ways that we often dismiss. They were more clutch, more poised, more disciplined on defense, and they never allowed the Bucks to gain momentum. I lean the Suns -5.5 once again but I won’t bet it since I expect game two to have a different feel– less celebratory and showy, more gritty and contentious. And that’s another big reason why I like the under. I do think the Bucks will come out much stronger in the first quarter, though. In a game this important, I’ll take the +1.5 all day.
Giannis’ props are on the rise and they should be. Usually his P/A/R prop is over 50 but the books are still anticipating he’ll have some limitations in game two. I was anticipating that in game one, but Giannis didn’t look very limited at all. The Greek-freak was as aggressive and agile as always. He asserted his strength in the front court, drove defenders out of his way with terrifying ease, and was just as imposing and problematic on defense. A P/A/R prop this low is a gift and it’s not one I can pass on.
Game one was good; I think game two will be better. Good luck in your bets tonight!
