The home teams continue to dominate this series, just like we anticipated, and now the battle brings us back to the Phoenix Suns Arena for a crucial game five. We’re 7-5 overall in this series and overdue for a big night– let’s get it here Saturday (P.S.– DM me or comment on one of my posts on Twitter to get my FREE Premium Picks today)!!
Suns Win 1H (-160), 2.5 units and
Suns -4 (-110), 2 units and
Middleton over 24.5 points (-122), 2 units:
This closely and hard-fought series between the Suns and the Bucks is showing why these two franchises are deserving of their spots in the championship round. Both teams are thriving at home behind their crazed fans and we’ve seen tremendous all-around performances from Giannis Antetokounmpo, excellent shooting nights from Devin Booker, point-guard and leadership clinics from Chris Paul, and clutch mid-range offense from Khris Middleton. The Milwaukee and Phoenix supporting casts’ are always down for the battle too, with names like Ayton, Holiday, Connaughton, Bridges, Portis and others stepping up in key moments to lift their teams. There’s plenty of chatter out there about the drop in NBA ratings and in the popularity of the product overall. I get why we complain– the flops, the mid-season “resting,” the injuries, the inconsistent scheduling– but these two blue-collar units are bringing heart and drama to the NBA Finals and to that I say: what more could we ask for? I think the series will go all 7 games.
As well as some of the stars have played in moments, many of the Suns and Bucks’ players have seemed overcome by the bright lights on more than one occasion. Giannis always starts slow and uninspired. Booker had an awful game three. Chris Paul has turned the ball over in big game moments. Middleton had subpar games 2 and 3, scoring only 29 combined points in those contests. It’s an indication of two teams lacking big-game experience. We’re all adapted to watching players like Lebron and Brady, seasoned GOATS, who seem to have this uncanny ability to tap into another level of skill in the most nerve-racking situations. That’s rarely happening in this series. Instead, you can actively see players like Giannis and CP3 wrestling with their adrenaline and anxiety. They’re wide-eyed, out of breath, and at times really frustrated. Who will step up and show poise in the biggest spots in these final 2-3 games remains to be seen. At least for game 5, I think the Bucks will need Khris Middleton more than usual.
The Milwaukee offense has always ran the same way– high pick and rolls, isolation to Giannis, pitch to the outside to a perimeter shooter here and there, and hopefully Middleton bails them out when that all doesn’t work. Make no mistake about it, Middleton is absolutely the best pure shooter on the Bucks. It ain’t Giannis. Antetokounmpo is the most dominant– perhaps the most dominant player in the NBA when he’s locked in– but the Greek-Freak can’t produce clutch offense if the other team is double/triple-teaming him in the front court. It’s obvious that when the Bucks are performing at their best, it’s Khris Middleton who’s nailing those mid-range shots over and over again and sustaining their production. Giannis has looked gassed in a few of these contests, which is concerning, and it scares me away from taking him on any props today. Instead, I’ll count on Middleton to score at least well into the 20s. Milwaukee will need him to have an exceptional game, along with Antetokounmpo, if they’re going to have a chance at winning tonight.
That being said, this is the Suns’ game to lose. Phoenix plays fantastic at their home floor and after two volatile showings at Fiserv Forum, with Chris Paul succumbing to unusual turnovers and Devin Booker fouling too much and scoring too inconsistently, I expect all-systems-go in front of their fans. While I love them to win the first half, I also expect them to cover the full game. The Suns run at a lightning pace when they’re in rhythm (especially when their crowd is buzzin’), which usually amounts to tremendous spurts of offense. While I lean the full game over 218, I can’t take it. I’m afraid Phoenix could win by some margin today, especially if Giannis and Middleton have a bad game, and that might spell an unusually low total if the game slows down in the fourth.
I’d be pretty shocked if Milwaukee won tonight but stranger things have happened. Like I said, I see the Suns winning this one, followed by another Bucks win at Fiserv Forum, and then we’ll dissect game seven and go from there. Either way it should be plenty entertaining and yield us plenty more wins.
Good luck from your friends at TheOddsBreakers!
