We’ve made it to game six of the NBA Finals and it should be a real barn burner! Much to our surprise and betting chagrin, the Bucks outlasted the Suns in game five, snagging a win in Phoenix and now poised and in position to grab the grand prize if they can earn just one more victory Tuesday night. Who do I think will win and what are my best bets? See for yourself below!
Suns/Bucks over 222 (-110), 1 unit and
Each team over 20.5 per QTR (+110), 1.5 units and
Paul over 8.5 assists (-143), 1.5 units:
Rut row. The pressure is on the young and inexperienced Suns, and particularly their veteran leader Chris Paul, as they face possible elimination at the Fiserv Forum Tuesday night. The Suns started off Saturday’s game in near-perfect fashion. They clobbered Milwaukee 37-21 behind a roaring and raucous crowd in the opening quarter. Booker came out hot, Ayton contributed immediately, Paul found an early groove and Crowder couldn’t miss. Then they hit a wall. The Bucks put the vice-grips out on defense and suddenly Phoenix couldn’t hit a shot at the start of the second quarter. Connaughton and Portis and Middleton and Holiday all started finding a rhythm and Giannis ended the half in dominant fashion, scoring a late alley-oop layup to compound the feeling of disappointment for the home-town team and their fans. They out-scored the Suns 43-24 in the second quarter, becoming the second team in finals history to lead at halftime after trailing by at least 15 after one quarter, according to Elias Sports Bureau. It felt like the Suns expected to win and then didn’t know how to capitalize once they found themselves with a big lead. They can’t make that mistake again Tuesday.
There are multiple reasons why the Bucks have been able to redeem themselves and come back from a 2-0 deficit (something they’ve already done once in this NBA postseason against Brooklyn). First, Giannis is healthy. The Greek-freak had a scare in the Eastern Conference Finals that sent the state of Wisconsin into disarray, but it’s been all steady improvement since that near debacle. Antetokounmpo’s injury concerns are a thing of the past; it seems the basketball gods must adore the former MVP. That and the man is quite literally a physical specimen.
Secondly, the Suns simply don’t have an answer for the combination of Middleton and Antetokounmpo and when they do temporarily, other members of Milwaukee’s supporting cast have stepped up in big ways. We’ve said it since the start of this series– Phoenix has the “small ball” advantage: better shooters, quicker dribblers and passers, and better team basketball. When they’re in-sync, it’s nearly impossible to stop. But the Suns strength is also their weakness. They can’t stymie the long and able wingspans of Antetokounmpo and Middleton and Lopez once they assert dominance in the front court. One of the clearest indicators of their front court prowess, besides all the 5-10 foot buckets, is Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding. The Bucks have far out-rebounded the Suns when they have possession. That was especially true in game four where they hawked 17 compared to Phoenix’s 5. They also had an 11-8 advantage Saturday. If the Suns are going to win game six, they need to start practicing the art of boxing out the bigs.
Lastly and most importantly, the Bucks are winning because they’re experts at fast-paced offense and then even better at recovering at the other end. Watch the Bucks’ defenders after they score a quick bucket. They hustle and sprint back to the other side of the court so the Suns’ offense can’t take advantage of the energy boost. Phoenix shot 68.4% from beyond the arc in game five (the Bucks shot 50%), and still lost. They also shot 90% from the FT line (compared to Milwaukee’s 52.9%). It wasn’t enough. They need to cultivate more fluidity on offense and create opportunities to put up points, or they need to devise a better defensive game-plan to pester the Bucks’ scorers.
Take it from Jrue Holiday. After getting a bit embarrassed in the first 2 contests, Jrue has been an absolute shadow on Chris Paul, following and harassing him everywhere he goes. Paul is not his young self and the pressure of the moment has to be bearing down on him. CP3 is almost always good for a big passing game (he averages 8.9 assists per game on the season) but I think it’ll be even more prominent in game six. Expect the Suns’ leader to try and replicate some of the magical team basketball that took his team this far and to easily eclipse his assist prop. He may have no other option with the way Holiday is contesting his movement.
All that being said, even with the Suns’ need to improve their effort on defense and with the gravity of game six, I still expect another high-scoring game. While that probably favors Milwaukee’s style, I don’t think that necessarily means the Suns will lose. The Bucks have figured something out in the front court (they were 62.1% shooting through the first 3 quarters of game five) and I just don’t see Phoenix completely stifling Giannis and his crew. At the same time, the Suns still have the small-ball advantage and if they can stay in rhythm, it’ll be the Bucks struggling to keep up behind less-able shooters. I like both teams to score plenty in this game and to easily eclipse 20 points per quarter, too. I like that grab for a little + money.
Game five featured 6 ties and 6 lead changes in an absolute rollercoaster of emotions. What lies ahead in game six? We shall see. I won’t pick a side but I lean the Suns at +5. This series has been too close to predict a blowout finale for the Bucks, though I’m sure they’d want nothing more. For the purposes of this article, I’ll take the over, the Suns and Bucks to score plenty in each period of play and for Chris Paul to do more of what he does best– dish the ball to his many talented young stars. Good luck out there, peeps!
