Hi all! A big part of my NBA handicapping is measuring the psychology of individual players and their related team behaviors. Below are some of these observations, which may help you more accurately assess these two squads and ultimately, win more wagers. After all, that’s our goal, right?!
Chris is 71-54 (57%) for +12 units in the NBA playoffs – check out his premium picks to get this quality of winnings in every sport, every day, directly in your inbox!
Individual Observations:
- Don’t expect Klay Thompson to give up after a few bad shooting performances. On the road he’s averaging nearly 20 ppg in this year’s NBA playoffs, and his assassin-like precision tends to be the steady hand for Golden State in away games, especially when Steph Curry is on the bench.
- There doesn’t seem to be a clear correlation between Jason Tatum or Jaylen Brown leading Boston’s team scoring and the Celtics winning. Boston usually just needs one of their two superstars to have a big showing to win. So far we’ve seen spikes and we’ve seen dips in performance from both players at various moments in the first two games. I would expect them to both settle in more at home.
- Al Horford looked shook, particularly in the paint, in game two. Don’t expect him to reflect the same disposition in game three. Horford has responded with surprising ferocity throughout the NBA Playoffs, especially after a bad performance, and no player is more motivated to win an NBA Championship than the 15-year veteran.
- Is anyone showing more effort than Kevon Looney? The big man has found a new spark, offering nearly 8 rebounds per game and, more importantly, his high-energy defense has cleared the paint and prevented Boston from snagging more offensive rebounds. There is no data on “clearing the paint” or “boxing out,” but it matters.
- I would argue that no player is more singularly important in this series than Marcus Smart. You’re welcome to explore the data yourself but take my word for it: when Smart’s point differential is in the +, Boston wins. When it’s in the -, Boston loses.
- Similarly to Marcus Smart, the Warriors tend to accelerate (or decelerate) based on Draymond Green’s level of energy. Golden State is known as a more “flamboyant” team for obvious reasons, but all great teams need a gritty, physical tough-guy to intimidate the other side. Boston prides themselves on their physicality and toughness; Draymond must continue his aggressive approach to take the Celtics off that perceived pedestal.
Team Observations:
- The Golden State Warriors continue to come alive and make amazing adjustments after halftime. On the year, they’re the highest-rated second half team. There’s little to no reason to expect any sort of negative regression, and it’s part of the reason why their performance in the 4th quarter of game one was so shocking.
- The highest home rating in the NBA? The Warriors. The highest away rating in the NBA? The Celtics. Quite a quandary, but it makes sense that we have a tied series thus far.
- When we think of interior paint defense we think of the Boston Celtics, but make no mistake about it – the Warriors are exceptional at defending the rim and they’ve been a top 5 defense in “opponent paint points” all season. This will continue to be a point of emphasis for the Golden State defense and when Boston struggles to find low-to-mid-range success, they often lose.
- We’ve noticed that Boston can easily be taken out of their groove when a team “punches them in the mouth” early. It happened against Milwaukee, against Miami, and it happened against Golden State in game two. When the Celtics are the aggressors, it’s a different story. Objectively, the Celtics are much taller and athletic than the Warriors. Watch where Boston holds the ball in the proceeding games. If they’re sticking to fundamentals and expressing patience, they hold the ball high above the Warriors’ defenders, and this means they’re probably more settled in and confident. When they look antsy and out-of-sync, they tend to bring the ball down and, to no one’s surprise, the Warriors take advantage by poking and prying it out. This also goes back to Draymond Green and why he’s so important for the Warriors’ success.
- Both Boston and Golden State has shown a proclivity to “let-down” in spots that aren’t ideal, especially this postseason. The Warriors in games four of their series against Denver and Dallas are great examples. The Celtics in game five against Milwaukee and game six against Miami are another two cases. In this series, the team who has more consistent mental fortitude will probably hold the trophy. This is why Golden State’s experience is so important and why I give them a slight advantage in the NBA Finals. Others will dismiss this factor – I do not.
