The reeling 76ers head to Denver to face the fiesty defense of the Nuggets– check out what bet I’m on below!
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NFL Circa Picks: 33-16-1
NFL ATS Picks: 67-70
NBA ATS Picks: 51-40, +16.02 units
76ers/Nuggets under 209.5, -110 (2 units): Yeeaaa this total it too high. The 76ers travel to Denver after losing their last 5 games. Part of this is not having Embiid in the lineup, but this is also a Philadelphia team that’s over-worked and running out of steam in general. Last time we saw the 76ers they were getting blown out 2 nights ago in Utah; now they have to take on a Denver team coming off 3 days of rest.
This game sets up perfectly for Nikola Jokic to methodically control the game. With Embiid out, Andre Drummond (who’s actually played really well) will take on the load of defending the big man for most of this contest. While Drummond has been a great contributor on both sides of the court, he can’t play all 48 minutes. The 76ers are depleted– no Simmons, no Danny Green, no Thybulle, and as we know, no Embiid. Nikola Jokic and the efficient Nuggets offense (they’re top 10 in effective field goal %, points in the paint, and assists per game) can take their time and drain the 76ers defense. And that’s good; they love taking their time. The 76ers are Nuggets are the slowest teams in the NBA, ranked 29th and 30th, respectively. Additionally, no team allows less points per game than Denver (98.9), and over their last 8 home games they’re only permitting an outstanding 93.6 ppg. I don’t expect that to change tonight against an exhausted Philadelphia squad.
The 76ers are in a horrendous spot, they’re injured, and the Nuggets can coast into this game while they await a tough opponent in the ascending Chicago Bulls tomorrow night. The only way for me to look at this game is the under– take it with confidence.
