The early NBA Season has gone well so far, hitting at nearly 60% over the last 3 weeks. We all know it’s a long 82 game stretch and we’ll experience plenty of variance, both from these teams and from our own angles. Happy to have you all here for the ride!
For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
MLB Season: 231-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 57-54, +7.2 units
NFL Circa Picks: 32-17-1
NBA 21/22 Season: 37-26 (59%), +15.64 units
Bucks/Knicks over 215.5 (-110), 2 units: The Bucks travel to Madison Square Garden on less than a day’s rest after overcoming the depleted 76ers last night. It was a good all-around game for Giannis (shocking, right?) and it was a solid performance from Bobby Portis, who’s working his way back into the rotation and looked like his energetic self in Philly. Jrue Holiday, who’s also adjusting to the regular season after only playing 5 games, didn’t have as brilliant a night. The stud point guard will improve as the season wanes on, but for now it’s promising news that a banged-up Bucks roster can still hold their own in spots they should win. Grayson Allen’s 25 points on 8-13 hasn’t gone unnoticed either– he’s been a great contributor in the early parts of this season. Although Milwaukee has experienced some early woes and challenges, this is still a deep, capable roster.
When a team plays a back-to-back, especially a team as injury-plagued as the Bucks, you might assume that it will result in a lethargic, slow-paced effort on the night following game one. While that’s sometimes true, from the data we’ve collected, game totals can just as easily be inflated due to a lack of defensive effort. While that’s a tough thing to measure, “effort,” sometimes a simple “eye test” just tells us this is true. The Bucks will continue to be without rim-protector Brook Lopez, and while we wish Khris Middleton was back, this team showed it can still produce plenty of offense against a stingy 76ers lineup last night. Expect the Bucks to look like a heavyweight contender again soon.
The Knicks, on the other hand, have flipped their persona over the last 3 weeks. New York comes into this game ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and ranked 22nd in points allowed per game– not exactly reminiscent of last year’s blue-collar, gritty defense that we’ve come to know. New additions Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier have surely helped– they’ve significantly increased the amount of 3s attempted and the amount of 3s made for New York per game– and Derrick Rose coming off the bench doesn’t hurt, either. Typically I prepare for regression in a case like this, and I’m sure their defense will improve, but the Knicks are currently top 10 in effective field goal percentage, top 10 in possessions, and 3rd in points per game. For now, this is a team built more around efficient offense.
So far NBA totals are considerably down from what we saw in last year’s regular season, and the market is attempting to adjust. There’s a number of reasons for this– there’s always more than one reason– but when we feel the number drops too low, it’s time to take advantage. The spot, the averages, and the ability of these two offenses has my number closer to 220. For that reason, this is an auto-bet on the over!
