NBA Free Pick from FarleyBets – Bulls at Bucks, Game 2

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Apr 17, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) shoots during the first quarter against the Chicago Bulls during game one of the first round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

 

The playoffs have been mostly kind to us so far, but there’s a ton of volatility and unpredictable results that can take place when teams are vying for championship goals. It’s important to tread this water carefully and make sure you’re not overinvesting on any one day – there’s plenty of time to make a profit in 2 months of action.

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Bucks 1H -6, 1.5 units: Game one between the Bulls and Bucks was, well, cute. It was a horrendous shooting night for both teams: the Bulls shot 32.3% from the floor and a disgusting 18.9% from beyond the arc, while the Bucks shot 40% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point land. On the one hand we can blame the playoffs, right? Playoff basketball yields stronger defensive effort, typically a slower overall pace, and there’s a shit-ton of pressure in these big game situations. It makes sense that shots are missed frequently, but I don’t think it’ll be as much of an issue for Milwaukee tonight.

The Bucks have been a historically great team in the 1st quarter, especially at home, since we’ve seen this group together. This season they’re ranked 6th in offensive efficiency and in defensive efficiency in the 1st half of games. The Bulls are in the bottom half of the league average in the same categories, and haven’t we seen this story before? Chicago often looks lifeless, lost, and off-rhythm early in games; this is especially true since Lonzo Ball got injured. In game one, the Bulls fell behind by a staggering 13 points in the 1st quarter, and then succumbed to an 8-point deficit at the half.

Overall the Bulls put forth a very solid effort in game 1, but no one should believe that they’re on the same planet as Milwaukee. Giannis and his supporting cast cannot be happy about the way that last game ended. It was a 1-point game with 10 minutes remaining in the 4th QTR, and then a 1-point game again in the final minute of play. Milwaukee looked as stunned as the rest of us. That was probably the best effort and the most ideal result that we’ll see from Chicago in this series.

The Bucks are just SUCH a better team in so many ways: defensively, offensively, from the perimeter, from the paint, how they’re coached, and how talented their personnel is. After a bad shooting night, expect the Bucks to get back to basics. Giannis should thrive in that approach and I think we’ll see him bull-rush (pun intended) his opponent early and often. Remember, the Bulls were one of the worst teams in pro-basketball to end the season – ranked 25th in both offensive and defensive efficiency with a record of 8-15 since the All-Star break. The Bucks starters are considerably better than Chicago’s – Milwaukee makes a statement early; we’ll take them in the 1st half to cover.