FarleyBets here with a free pick and our free picks have been ON FIRE! Below is an angle I really like tonight – let’s get a W!
Current NBA Record: NBA: 242-186 (57%), +78.40 units
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Clippers +6 (-105), 1 unit: There’s a lot of good reasons to believe the Clippers can cover tonight’s game, and there’s even more reasons to believe their foe cannot cover tonight’s line. Let’s look at some of the data before we break this down:
- Sharps jumped on this immediately and the line has moved in favor of the Clippers, dropping from +8 to now +6 at most books.
- The Clippers have covered all 3 previous games against Denver. They have an ATS point differential of +12.5 in those three contests this year.
- The Clippers boast a top 10 defense that’s been relatively consistent all year. Lately they’ve dropped in defensive efficiency ratings – I love this as a spot to regress to their mean (they’re 8th overall this season).
The Clippers’ reputation on defense is primarily because of how well they contest shots on the perimeter. Of course they’ve battled all year without Kawhi Leonard, and losing exceptional defenders like Pat Beverly (now on the Timberwolves) and Paul George (announced out for the regular season) hasn’t helped, but they still play at a level that makes it tough for any offense to thrive. They’re top 10 in opponent 3-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game, and they’re top 5 in opponent 2-point percentage, opponent shooting percentage, and opponent effective field goal percentage.
And that’s why they’re such a good matchup for Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. The best way (truly the only way) to stop Denver is to make life harder for Jokic. If you limit his supporting cast, an area where LAC has plenty of experience, then you greatly burden Jokic and force the Nuggets to be a one-trick-pony.
Lastly, the Nuggets have not covered well in these spots. Denver is:
- 13-16 ATS (44.8%) after a loss
- 18-26 ATS (40.9%) in conference games
- 13-21 ATS (38.2%) as a home team
- And the Nuggets have failed to cover in 6 of their last 8 contests
To this guy, the value is solely on the Clippers tonight.
