It’s become a hump-day tradition to release a free pick so why the heck not again today! The Conference Finals are here and we like a side in today’s contest between the “surprising” (we’re not surprised) Mavericks and the veteran Warriors! Check it out!
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Mavericks +5 (-110), 1 unit: We got this at +5.5 but I still like it at 5. The two best teams in the West, the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors, duke it out in game 1 tonight at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Before we break down why we favor Dallas tonight, let’s look at some of the playoff stats from both of these teams thus far:
Warriors:
- Offensive Efficiency: 114.3 (6th)
- Defensive Efficiency: 110.5 (6th)
- Assist %: 66.4 (1st)
- Effective FG %: 56.4 (2nd)
- 3 Point %: 37.6 (4th)
- PPG: 114.2 (1st)
- Points Allowed: 110.2 (11th)
- Point Differential: +4 (4th)
Mavericks:
- Offensive Efficiency: 114.5 (5th)
- Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (6th)
- Assist %: 50.1 (15th)
- Effective FG %: 54.9 (4th)
- 3 Point %: 38.5 (3rd)
- PPG: 106.2 (10th)
- Points Allowed: 101.9 (3rd)
- Point Differential: +4.3 (3rd)
As always, statistics need to be considered with context. The Warriors faced high paced, high-octane offenses against Denver and especially against Memphis. The Mavericks play at a molasses-in-January pace (aka… SLOW) and faced two teams in Utah and Phoenix that are happy to proceed just as leisurely. This matchup is very interesting in more ways than I have time to explain here, but here are a few of the angles I’m taking a deeper look at:
- Who controls the pace? Golden State is averaging 100 possession per game, which is an average NBA regular season tempo, while Dallas is only averaging 92.50.
- Which team will have more perimeter success? The Mavericks faced tougher defenses and still shot better than the Warriors from beyond the arc in their first two series.
- Strength of opponent – what can we take from each team’s first 2 series? In my opinion, Dallas had the tougher road, and most of that is because of 2021 Western Champ Suns. Few believed they could beat Phoenix, led alone by a 33 point margin to close the series.
- Will Dallas overly rely on Luka Doncic or will Luka facilitate an offense that’s starting to find it’s rhythm? If it’s the latter, Dallas is extremely dangerous.
That last question is probably the biggest one. The Dallas Mavericks are sensational when at least two of Luka’s supporting cast members play above average offensive basketball. In game 7, it was Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson. In other contests it was Dorian Finney Smith, Reggie Bullock, or even bench players like Davis Bertans and Maxi Kleber who gave a huge boost. By what we’ve seen from the Mavericks in the regular season, especially against Golden State, they’re in rhythm and I expect the same success tonight.
This series will be won by the guard positions. Both teams have formidable but unexceptional big men on offense, creating a series that will be won or loss by “small ball.” We saw a similar situation in the Dallas/Phoenix series. When Ayton was above-average, the Suns coasted. When he wasn’t, they had issues. One thing Dallas has over a lot of teams is their size. Luka is a huge point guard at 6’7″, Brunson is small but thick and feisty, Spencer Dinwiddie is a solid 6’5″, and Dorian Finney Smith and Reggie Bullock are more physically imposing than Otto Porter, Klay Thompson, or Andrew Wiggins. A finesse team like the Warriors can get easily overwhelmed by the kind of physicality the Mavs offer.
Dallas will want to mimic what they did to Phoenix – outmuscle, annoy, and out-shoot their opponent from the perimeter. I think they can have a ton of success in those areas. The fact that Golden State hasn’t seemed very sharp at times this postseason only makes me like Dallas more. The Mavericks have some momentum after that huge win against the Suns, and this doesn’t feel like a team that’s going to let up on defense. Jason Kidd has instilled a blue-collar culture in Dallas and clearly it’s working; I think they ride that wave into game 1 and at least keep this close. I wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright, either.
