Things are going well for us so we haven’t changed a modicum of our habits or routines – we’re hitting at an unprecedented 58% for a second year in a row in NBA Picks and we’re already over 80 units. I can’t compare my records to every pro NBA bettor across the planet, but something tells me very few (if any) are performing at this level. Click here for my premium packages every day, directly to your inbox! Onto my play!
Raptors -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well the Raptors certainly haven’t hit their post-all-star-break stride just yet, losing 2 of their first games by margin, but we expect some positive regression from Toronto and there’s plenty to suggest we’re right. Let’s take a look at some of the Raptors’ marks from Jan 1 to right before the break:
- Offensive Efficiency Rating: 9th
- Defensive Efficiency Rating: 10th
- Net Rating: 8th
- Offensive Rebound Percentage: 2nd
- Rebounding Rate: 8th
Now let’s look at some data in their first 2 games back to action after the All-Star-break:
- Offensive Efficiency Rating: 28th
- Defensive Efficiency Rating: 29th
- Net Rating: 29th
- Offensive Rebound Percentage: 16th
- Rebounding Rate: 23rd
I chose the rebounding data specifically because we know that’s where Toronto thrives. They have a significant length advantage against most NBA teams and they’re usually great at taking advantage of it. Second-chance opportunities and short-range, effective buckets are how the Raptors make their money. Tonight they’ll go up against a Brooklyn team that’s fresh off a big win against Milwaukee on the road (a nod to Kyrie, who put in one HECK of a performance Saturday). And while the Nets’ big 3 won’t play tonight, Brooklyn has been frisky lately. Drummond adds a significant presence in the front court as a shot-blocker, rebounder and physical force at the rim, and Seth Curry, Patty Mills and others have contributed to efficient shooting from the perimeter. That’s all fine and I give credit to Brooklyn for where they stand now amidst all the drama and volatility on their roster, but this is a MUCH better spot for Toronto. The Nets are also performing well-above average lately and we expect their marks to drop: Brooklyn is bottom third in the NBA in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, rebounding rate and net rating in their last 15 games.
It’s a misconception that Toronto isn’t as good on the road. At times they may not be as crisp, but they’re still covering 58.6% of their away matchups (17-12-1). This is a weird schedule spot (they’ll face the Nets, at home, in a back-to-back tomorrow night) but the Raptors need to win and capitalize on a more shallow Nets roster. Nick Nurse is one of the least celebrated, sharpest minds in the NBA. He’s proven that year-to-year with rosters that shouldn’t have won as much as they did. His team will button up tonight.
Toronto has been without OG Anunoby, which hasn’t been ideal for their output, and Freddie VanFleet is working through knee issues. Neither of those intangibles are ideal, but the Raptors have enough firepower and long-talent to overcome those challenges. I expect a big game from Gary Trent Jr., who’s been sensational this season, a typically solid performance from Pascal Siakam, and a well-coached Raptors team to get-right tonight against Brooklyn on the road.
