Our NBA season has picked up where it left off last year, hitting at 57% so far with over 100 picks. It’s a long season with a ton of ups and downs, so buckle up and let’s keep on beating the book! Here’s my favorite Thanksgiving-Eve bet in the NBA!
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NFL Circa Picks: 35-19-1
NBA: 63-48 (57%), +21.97 units
Lakers win (+110), 2 units: Do I like the idea of betting on the Lakers this year? Absolutely not. Russel Westbrook is proving that he’s not an ideal fit in this offense. The methodical, tough style of Lakers basketball we’re used to seems like a distant memory. When Russ is in the equation (and Rondo, for that matter), the Lakers push the basketball with more pace and, inevitably, with many more turnovers. Russel Westbrook led the NBA in turnovers for weeks, but has only recently been eclipsed by James Harden. He’s now in 2nd with 4.9 turnovers per game. Yikes.
The truth is, there’s not much to like about the Lakers so far. They’re not fluid, they’re inconsistent, and they’ve been plagued with injuries (again). Meanwhile, there’s plenty to like about the Pacers. Although they can also be wildly inconsistent, Indiana is top 10 in quite a few offensive categories (shooting %, shooting efficiency, points in the paint, etc.), but they certainly don’t check a lot of boxes on defense. Where the Pacers thrive on offense they often lack on the other end of the hardwood, ranked 25th in opponent points in the paint and 25th in opponent 3 point percentage, according to TeamRankings.com. They also foul too much, turn the ball over a ton, and rarely snag offensive rebounds (they’re bottom 3rd in all those categories). The Pacers are a prototypical “good not great” franchise that can beat most NBA teams if the spot and situation is right.
With all these factors taken into consideration, why the hell do I like the Lakers tonight? One word: motivation. The Lakers got bested by the Knicks last night in a closely fought contest between two historically great teams. While it didn’t have the same flair it usually does, LAL fought hard and came back from a 16 point 1st quarter deficit to nearly win. Anthony Davis didn’t shoot or play well, going 7-17 from the field and grabbing only 6 rebounds. Tonight I expect that to change against a beatable Pacers front court. Oh yeah and, after serving a one-game suspension and being maligned by the media for days on end, Lebron returns tonight. You don’t have to love or even like Lebron, but these are the situations where he plays his best– responding to adversity. It’s what makes him great, and it’s the biggest reason why I think the Lakers will look different tonight.
One of the most important aspects of NBA betting is not overreacting to any one game or even a slew of games. The Lakers have lost 4 of their last 5 games and they’re now officially under .500 on the season. Tomorrow is Thanksgiving. Something tells me Lebron and company will express max-effort tonight (even on a back to back) to make sure they head into the holiday with more confidence. The Pacers are a good team, but I can only look at the Lake-show tonight.
