Happy Friday, good people! Following a rough Wednesday, we’re feeling better today after going 2-0 Thursday night and getting back to a 60% win rate (28-19) in the NBA. Let’s get some more tonight– here’s a free play to start your weekend!
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 28-19 (60%), +15.38 units
MLB Season: 231-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 57-54, +7.2 units
Pelicans 1Q +3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: For whatever reason, the Warriors can’t seem to start off their games on a high note. In the early part of this season, Golden State has generally started slow. In the first four games they had a -19 point differential in the first half of play; that’s an average of 4.75 points down per game. They hit a high note in game 5 in the 1st quarter (winning 37-20), but ended up 7 points behind in the 2nd quarter. They repeated that with another solid 1st half showing against the Thunder, going up 11 in the first 24 minutes, only to get edged out in the 1st quarter by the Hornets again Wednesday.
I’m not sure what the rhyme or reason is behind these slow starts, but maybe it has to do with their moxie in the first 7 games. Golden State looks and plays with confidence, even when they’re losing, and have shown a propensity to “turn up the volume” and out-class teams in the 2nd half. And ultimately the Warriors are playing with exceptional chemistry, producing at a high rate as a team on the offensive end and locking down the opponent on defense. Players like Jordan Poole (who picked up right where he left off after a great preseason), Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter Jr. and veteran Andre Iguodala have made fast contributions to a team that looks ready to have a big season.
Regardless, I also like the way the Pelicans have played lately. They’re a young team and lack experience but new coach Willie Green has them fighting hard. We saw that effort exemplified in their energetic 1st half against the Suns, where they caused turnover after turnover and boat-raced Phoenix to the rim. And they’ve started games strong against good competition. Here’s how their last 7 games have went in the 1st quarter of play:
- Lost by 1
- Won by 14
- Lost by 6
- Lost by 7
- Won by 14
- Won by 6
- Lost by 1
In totality, that’s a +2.71 point differential per game and +19 point differential overall in the 1st quarter. Of course we’ve seen some real variance in those contests, but in general they don’t lose by as much and when they win, they win big. Willie Green seems to have the same calculated disposition as the coaching trees he comes from (Golden State, Phoenix) and I think this Pelicans team will improve as the season goes on. Of course Zion’s return and Brandon Ingram back-to-health will help. New addition Jonas Valanciunas saw his stock rise last year in Memphis and I love his matchup in this game. He’ll have a pure-skill advantage against Kevon Looney and his aggressive style of play energizes his team. I also like that the Pelicans have the weekend off after this matchup. Not a bad spot.
New Orleans is 1-8 and can’t feel good about their trajectory, despite how hard they’ve fought. They need this win considerably more than Golden State and while the Warriors often start off sleepy, I trust that the Pelicans can keep it within distance.
