It’s my favorite time of year– HALLOWEEN is around the corner, and we’re inundated with all the best content in sports! The World Series, the NBA starting, the NFL and college football in full swing, college basketball around the corner– you can’t beat it! Oh yea and UFC is every single weekend and hockey is back too; YOWZA! A LOT going on, folks! Balance it all, take a breath, and check out my free pick for tonight’s big NBA slate!
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 14-7, +13.9 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 52-47, +10.9 units
Celtics -4.5 (-110), 2 units: This is an ideal spot for the Boston Celtics and, well, not so much for Washington. Although I usually hate counting on Boston for anything these days, situational angles in the NBA are, I would argue, more important than any other sport when you’re betting. The NBA is a long, arduous season, full of injuries and areas where players get very little respite. Unlike the NFL, which is ultimately still ruled by the coaches and front management, the NBA is a very “players-driven” league and I think that’s why we so often see varying levels of motivation– few players hold themselves accountable on a nightly basis. That being said, in this scenario, advantage Boston.
The Wizards are on the tail end of a brief East Coast road trip that has them competing against Brooklyn on Monday and now Boston today. Tomorrow, in a quick turnaround spot, they’ll head back to DC to take on the burgeoning Hawks. Boston, meanwhile, was bolstered by the presence of Jaylen Brown and a big performance by Jayson Tatum on Monday in a big OT win against the (at that time) undefeated Hornets. Two days later and they’re back at home to welcome the Wizards. After tonight’s game, they’ll have 3 days of rest before returning to DC to face the Wizards on Saturday.
Washington is a little banged up, mostly on the back end of their rotation, while Al Horford is probable tonight (that’s big for their defense) and Jaylen Brown looks healthy after a 38 minute showing 2 nights ago. The reality is, the Celtics haven’t done anything THAT well in this early NBA season. They’re in the bottom half of the league in offensive and defensive efficiency and they’re 2-2 because of it (and because of their usual lack of chemistry at times). But overcoming Indiana in OT on Monday was a big victory. Wins like that can bolster and motivate a team. If we reflect on everything we’ve discussed in this article– the spot, the rest comparison, health, home court, and momentum– they seem to all favor the Celtics. I already have the Celtics (somehow) as 3 points better than this Wizards team, even though Washington does show obvious improvements from last season. The Celtics have been the same story for a long time now– talented, star-heavy, and ultimately disappointing. I believe new coach Ime Udoka can turn that ship around and create more consistency. From the outside, it seems he has good chemistry and influence in Boston.
This is a good line at -4.5 and when you can’t see yourself taking the underdog for any reason, it feels wise to lay the points. I’m on the Celtics tonight.
