509 Warriors at 510 Bulls 1H Total 114.5
Total for this game has been pushed up to 223.5/ 224 from it’s 221.5 open in some books and it’s understandable as we just saw the Bulls give up 138 points to the Nets on Wednesday. We know the Warriors have been one of the top defensive teams in the NBA but now that Draymond Green is out the Warriors have given up 116 and 118 in their L2. Mind you that is against two of the higher scoring teams in the Grizzlies and the Bucks. Tonight they’ll face another offensive power in the Bulls who will surely bring their ‘A’ game off a loss against one of the better teams in the Warriors.
Looking at the Bulls at home off a loss they are 4-2 O/U but average a 1H total of 110. Warriors on the road off a loss are 1-4 O/U with an average 1H total of 112. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a shootout tonight, but we have the Warriors coming in on a 0-5 O/U 1H streak, 2-8 O/U L10. Warriors are also 4th in defending the 3 pt shot where we know the Bulls’ Lavine and Vucevic thrive. We just saw the Warriors struggle against two teams that are bigger and get a lot of points from in the paint. The Bulls are plenty capable of getting inside but will likely try to outshoot the Warriors at least at first, as most teams do.
The concern for the 1H under here is if the Warriors catch fire from beyond the arc as the Bulls are 22nd in the NBA defending the 3 pt shot. We have the Bulls at 5-3-2 1H O/U L10 at home so it’s not a guarantee they’ll be looking to push the pace at first. We know the Warriors would like to slow it down as they are 6-14 1H O/U on the road on the season. I like the Under as I think the Warriors know slowing it down is their best chance at a win and we see both team’s 1H average under this 114.5 number in their respective situation. The under won’t be a big play as we are seeing money come in on the over, but it’s worth a play. Best to wait as close to game time as possible as money is coming in on the over.
509/510 UN 1H Total 114.5 (-105)*
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