Nice + unit night – we need to add another play on Knicks/Warriors over since the line moved against us. I think it’s absolutely wrong. I’ll keep betting at anticipating that, but early in the season when the market and I disagree, I’ve won more than I’ve lost. I guess we’ll find out tonight.
Jazz -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Jazz treated their game against the Cavs like we thought they would, barely putting for a full effort in the process and only playing most of their key guys (Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen) around 30 minutes or less. We don’t know if they’ll rest players tomorrow but indications suggest not, considering. The Pistons are only off one extra day of rest and while they can be feisty, they’re mostly 5-6 scale roster shouldn’t be enough to overcome a 6-8 scale roster on Utah. The Jazz get a nice reprieve at home for a Thursday game and then a long break to pair with it (they don’t play all weekend), so plenty of reason to finish their road trip with a bang.
Warriors/Knicks over 224 (-110), to win 2 units
Warriors/Knicks over 221 (-110), to win 1 unit
I love this number; I have it at 234. The Warriors looked good without Curry at Toronto, and I love that boost in momentum for Jordan Poole. Dude hasn’t looked great but one thing he’s good at and continues to be: high paced, assist-laden drives where he can spark an offense. Of course if he drops 43 points, even better. The Warriors may experience more chemistry knowing they need to come together and pick up the slack without Curry. James Wiseman returned from the G-league against Philly and gave the team a good burst of energy, too. This is why Kerr practiced so much with his bench early; it’s as if he knew they would need to adjust during the season. The Knicks have been red-hot and while their defense has been elite, their offense is also top 10. They’ve slowed down a little, but like any team they have the proclivity to play faster against a team like Golden State. I think the pace will be high, the game will be full of beautiful passing, and we’ll see a high-scoring battle. The Knicks’ efficiency is set to digress, too, IMO, and I think Golden State can force them out of their comfort zone (which will only mean turnovers, fouls, and more points). OVER.
Grizzlies/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hey- I got some good news. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are among the best transition offenses in the NBA. It’s literally how Memphis scores (because their shooting efficiency isn’t actually that great), they just drive and fly up the court and draw fouls. The Nuggets have adopted a much faster pace recently and they’re in a comfortable spot at home. Both of these high-octane offenses should fuel each other, and they have good matchups, too. Jokic and the Denver size can thrive on offense, but we all know that Denver doesn’t like to play much defense. Memphis will take advantage and even though they’re the better defensive team, I like the Nuggets’ recent offensive rhythm and I expect it to go unchanged Tuesday night. I like a game closer to 240.
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