Opening Night, October 18
76ers/Celtics over 214 (-110), to win 1 unit
Two top Eastern Conference opponents faceoff in Week 1 and I think Boston is set for some regression after they lost Ime Udoka for the season – Ime brought an intensity and defensive-minded approach to Boston that hardened them and prepared them for more success last year. They’ll miss his gritty style, and the 76ers are still super talented and poised to prove something out the gate. We saw high totals last year in the openers and I expect the same here; defenses need a little time to adjust.
Warriors 1Q -2 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Just a 1 unit play since it’s the first game of the season and that creates more volatility, but Lebron can be predictably overconfident in these spots and I don’t think that’s going to work against the defending champs. Draymond will play for Golden State and the Russ/Beverly combo looks like it’ll be a real show; one that should create some real inefficiencies immediately for the Lakers. If they’re going to be good this year, it won’t be on opening night, and it won’t be in the opening quarter. I like the Warriors to ransack the Lakers early– this probably isn’t out as most books yet but look for it as we get closer to Tuesday.
October 19
Heat 1H -3 or less, to win 1 unit
The Bulls won’t start off as hot this year, in my opinion, while the Heat are already getting discredited and underestimated by NBA “experts.” Miami is at home and we’ve seen Chicago crawl back into these games– I’d rather take a 1st half line on a Heat team that’s just waiting to bounce on a softie like Chicago.
Hawks -9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks won’t have to be that impressive to win by double digits here, in my opinion. The Rockets are one of the least talented teams in the NBA since they lost Christian Wood and I see their defense being considerably better this season.
Mavericks +4.5 (110), to win 1.5 units
This line is crazy, if you ask me. Even at home, there are all kinds of sell-signs on the Suns’ right now. The debacle with their owner, they’re trying to trade a key piece in Jae Crowder, Ayton seems like he’s barely interested in playing basketball. No thanks. I love the addition of Christian Wood for Dallas and I think the Mavericks are quietly building one of the most effective lineups in the NBA. They bested Phoenix in the postseason and that wasn’t a fluke.
