These totals are really kicking my ass– more to say on the Blazers’ output later in this article– but a lovely 3-1 Saturday in the association is nothing to bat an eye to. Let’s end this week strong with some more wins, shall we?
Nuggets -7 (-110), 1.5 units: We barely covered taking the Celtics side 2 nights ago in an OT game against Minnesota– that’s so like Boston to eke out that win– and as promised, I’m fading them here in this spot. Like I’ve said so many times in these posts, the Celtics have proved that they can’t contend with the elite this year. They love accruing wins against low and mid-tier teams: the Hornets, Pacers, Rockets, Raptors, etc., but the Nuggets are far from low or mid-tier and I expect it to show here today. Denver is the hottest team in the NBA right now. Since the acquisition of Aaron Gordon, who fits perfectly into their lineup as the role-player he was born to be, Denver has been on absolute fire. Winners of now 8 in a row, at times it seems the Nuggets don’t have to play all that hard to smash other teams. They just have too much talent. Improving nearly every day in their offensive ratings, Hollinger metrics now rates Denver as the 4th most efficient offense in the association. With so few egos and so many talented passers and shooters and rebounders, it’s no mystery why Denver can overwhelm their foes with ease. Jamal Murray is questionable, don’t love that, but so are Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. I also don’t love that the Nuggets have to turn around and travel to Golden State tomorrow, but I don’t think it matters. Off two days rest and at home, the Nuggets should flex here and show why the Celtics are no longer in this class of NBA teams. I’m on Denver to cover.
Heat win (-105), 2 units: The Blazers are kind of like the UCLA of professional basketball. Patient, lots of talent, consistent, but far too dependent on great shooting. Their game against the Pistons last night, for example– they played “well” but nothing really stood out about their performance. I guess we can give Portland a nod for playing slightly better defensive basketball as of late, but Lord knows they’ve never been consistent on that end of the floor either. Another solid performance by Damian Lillard and with a lot of success rebounding, the Blazers got past a team they should in Detroit. Slow clap, I guess? The Heat are a different animal. No strangers to adversity, the Heat travel to Portland Sunday and start a grueling road stretch. After tonight’s game they’ll travel to Phoenix on Tuesday and then a back-to-back Wednesday at Denver. Ouch. That doesn’t deter me Sunday though. Miami has steadily improved all year on defense. As of today, the Heat are 5th overall in Hollinger’s team defense ratings and they allow the 3rd least points per game. Like the Blazers, they’re patient. But unlike the Blazers and more like a Baylor or Gonzaga, Miami knows how to spread around the ball. The Heat are 3rd overall in assist ratio– guess who’s in last place? The Blazers. True to form, Portland relies way too much on their sharp-shooters to lift them out of bad spots. It’s not easy getting off good shots against Miami and nothing will come easy tonight. Jimmy Butler is also starting to play like he did in last year’s playoffs, too. Off 3 days rest, I love the Heat to win.
Grizzlies -3 (-115), 2 units: This is a sweet revenge spot for the Grizzlies. Two evenly matched teams face-off Sunday in what should be a good battle. Unfortunately for Memphis, the last time these squads battled the Pacers embarrassed the Grizzlies in Indianapolis back in early February. As usual, the Pacers are sputtering around right now, beating bad teams and falling victim to inconsistent performances. The Grizzlies just lost to a New York Knicks team that was all but ready to die to win that game (what an OT thriller at MSG), so that’s not a bad loss. Memphis has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA before Friday, winning 5 of their last 6, and I love them on their home court in this one. Give me a healthy Grizzlies team to cover and get a little redemption.
Knicks win (-140), 2 units: The Raptors are one of the most unpredictable and volatile teams in the NBA. I usually try to avoid betting their games for that reason, but this one is too juicy to pass up. The Knicks, for all their woes, are at least one of the more consistent teams in the association. You know what you’ll get from New York: conservative coaching, stingy defense, and volatile offense capable of great output mostly thanks to RJ Barrett and Julius Randle. I hate that recipe for Toronto today. The Raptors tend to get a little fat and sassy (and over-celebrate) after a big win. I love what I saw from Gary Trent Jr., he seems happy and that speaks to Portland’s shaky offensive schemes, but we can expect some extreme regression tonight against a healthy and poised Knicks unit. The Knicks have struggled but they’re not the Cavs, and Toronto is way too dependent on random big games from one of their talented shooters. New York’s win against Memphis 2 nights ago could be a season-altering victory. They refused to lose, forced OT and never gave up the lead once they had it. It was a full team-effort. I love the Knicks to carry that momentum into tonight and stump the perpetually confused Raptors. The opposite narrative would make little sense.
Parlay opportunity: Consider a 3 team parlay on Denver, Dallas, and Miami (+254 odds). I think it has a great chance to hit.
