The Knicks saved the day yesterday, the Heat will have to provide more than 18 points of offense in a quarter if they want a chance to win in the playoffs. Unleash Herro! Onto my Thursday picks or as we like to call them, my Friday Eve selections!
Bucks -4 (-115), 1.5 units: With or without Giannis (I hope it’s with him, obviously), the Bucks should easily win this game. Atlanta will still be more beat-up and if Milwaukee does start Giannis, we’re at a real advantage here at this number. This is not a good matchup for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of those rare units that, although talented, play at a bottom third tempo (21st) and play bottom third defense (20th). That’s not a good recipe against the Bucks. The Bucks live and die by fast-paced accelerant offense. Of course this is where Giannis usually eats defenders alive, but the Bucks are top 5 in offensive efficiency and not solely because of their star. They’re top 5 in rebounding ratio and top 5 in true shooting percentage, too, a qualified metric from Hollinger’s ratings that gives a more accurate depiction of a team’s overall shooting ability. Milwaukee needs to keep stacking up wins in the hopes that they finish #1 or #2 in the Eastern Conference. The team that doesn’t will have a tougher road. I’ll take the Bucks to cover.
Parlay- 1st quarter only, Warriors -2 and total over 57, 1 unit to win 2.5 units: Consider a prop bet on Steph Curry, too. Curry has been an absolute lightning rod the Golden State. Over their last 6 games, 4 of which they’ve won, Curry has averaged an incredible 40.5 points. Almost single-handily willing his team to victories, this is a Steph Curry worthy of MVP talk and one that shows no sign of slowing down (Kerr needing to block Curry from re-entering the game last night is a pretty solid indication of how hungry he is right now). The Warriors blew out the Thunder last night, scoring 147 points, and Curry didn’t play in the 4th quarter. I love Golden State to carry that momentum into today. Use this as a single bet on one side or take em both at the same time for a sweet parlay– I think they both hit, easily.
Celtics/Lakers under 213 (-110), 1.5 units: This line feels too high to me. Even without Davis and Lebron, the Lakers have remained the #1 defense in the NBA. Andre Drummond is a force, too, and he’ll get even better as he rounds into form with his new team. The Celtics, for all the shit I give them, have been playing really good defense lately. They made it extremely difficult for the Blazers to get into any sort of rhythm in their last contest. Their foe tonight doesn’t present too intimidating either. The Lakers are beat up but they’re a proud franchise with a great culture and I expect them to be as stingy as always. The Celtics are approaching a top 10 defense rating and they’re 10th overall in points allowed per game; LAL is 2nd. Take the under.
