What’s up people?! I like a lot of angles tonight, more than usual, so I’ll keep the individual write ups packaged tight so you can get about your day. Happy Friday!
Clippers win (+140) if Kawhi plays, 1 unit: These are two very evenly matched teams but I like the spot more for LAC. The Clippers sat out Kawhi and other starters Wednesday and still beat the Pistons. Philadelphia just battled Brooklyn in a game that was way too close at the end, considering the fact that Durant and Harden and Griffin were all on the bench, not to mention the recently retired LeMarcus Aldridge. Neither of these two teams have to play tomorrow, although Philly is in the middle of a nice little homestand. Good for them, but a well-balanced Clippers squad presents a different challenge tonight. Whatever way you decide to measure this game and gain a side, stats won’t help. LAC is top 10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in offensive efficiency. Philly is #2 in defensive efficiency and top 13 on offense. The 76ers also rank No. 4 in the NBA in shooting efficiency allowed and 3rd in 2-point shooting allowed (51.0 percent), while the Clippers are top 4 in defensive rebound rate (75.6 percent), 3-pointers allowed (11.3 per game), and assists allowed (22.8 per game). They’re both great teams. For plus money, especially if Kawhi plays, this is a steal. As I write this he’s questionable; look for an update closer to game time.
Pelicans/Wizards under 242.5 (-110), 1.5 units: We keep seeing this story. Just like in the NFL, after the Chiefs and Bucs and Packers and elite offenses light up the scoreboard through 8 weeks, the totals start to rise and the unders hit as the season nears playoff time. The books have caught up, and that’s the point we’re at right now in the NBA. This total, at 242.5, is an extremely high number. In case you don’t know what that means in translation, it means these two teams have to average over 60 points per quarter to eclipse that mark and hit the over. With the pace Washington plays at that’s entirely possible, but I don’t think it’s likely tonight. Clubs as inconsistent as the Wizards and Pelicans experience scoring droughts and volatility more than others. The Wizards sit at 22nd overall in offensive efficiency for that reason. New Orleans, who doesn’t play nearly as fast as Washington, is the more efficient offense at 10th overall. And here’s the thing– an intangible that’s easy to forget is that both of these teams know they suck on defense. They also know that their opponent’s chances of winning fall drastically if they’re able to succeed on defense, even if only for a short window of time. That usually results in moments during the game where the scoring slows and the tempo is more onerous, just like we saw in the Kings/Wizards game two nights ago. I’ll gladly take the under.
Nets team total over 117.5 (-105), 2.5 units: Are you kidding me? “Honey, can I take out a loan from the bank and hit the Nets team total over tonight? It even has reduced juice. What’s that? No?… okay okay.” There’s no such thing as a “lock” or guarantee in sports betting. Ever. That’s why this is a 2.5 unit bet and not a 2000 unit bet. That being said, I really love this angle tonight. With Gordon Hayward and other injured players out for the Hornets, I’m not sure where this full game total will land. What I do feel great about is what Brooklyn can do tonight. Like I mentioned on my podcast, I anticipated the Nets could lose against the Sixers (did I anticipate that Mr. Softie Durant would sit out, no, but here we are) and that Friday night would be a good time to flex. Besides the recovering James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris and Blake Griffin and all of Brooklyn’s scorers are set to headline this contest at home. As much as I really don’t want the Nets to succeed this year, this feels like an ideal spot for Brooklyn’s dynamic offense to put on a show. Charlotte, for all they’ve been through, has a solid defense. That’s probably why this line is a bit reduced. For us it’s just another chance to find value, take advantage, and win money. Nets over all day for me!
Grizzlies -4 (-110), 1.5 units: That was a really deflating loss for the Grizzlies two nights ago at Dallas. Memphis controlled much of that game and they were in prime position to win. Grayson Allen, a 90% free throw shooter, blew two straight shots at the charity stripe and gave Luka a chance at a miracle. And in typical Luka fashion, he delivered. When team morale drops after a loss like that it can go one of two ways. Memphis has proven how disciplined and even-keel they are all year. They’re one of the best ATS teams in the NBA for that reason (62.3% ATS overall, 60% ATS after a loss, 62.5% in away games). The Bulls are quite the opposite. Jockeying for a long shot at the playoffs and only covering 40.7% ATS at home, Chicago has now lost 4 straight after an ugly loss 2 nights ago against Orlando. Zach LaVine is out and the Grizzlies can’t expect a win tomorrow night at Milwaukee. Give me Memphis to cover in a game they need.
Knicks/Mavericks under 211 (-105), 1 unit: The one and only game where these two teams faced earlier in the season? The total settled at 185. It’s a matchup of two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA (Dallas is 25th, Knicks are 30th in tempo) and the Mavericks’ defense has improved as we’ve progressed into the season. We know how good New York’s defense is: they allow the least amount of points in the association and they’ve held that spot for awhile. Not overthinking this; it’s an under play for me.
Parlay Opportunity to Consider: Grizzlies + Pelicans + Nuggets + Heat (odds: +375) – Remember to only sprinkle very light units on parlays like this. Long term, you win by finding value in single plays, not outrageous parlays. That being said, I like all these teams to win.
