A clean 3-1 day boosts the overall record and we move onto Saturday in the association. How do you like that under on NO/WAS, even after OT? Good stuff. I don’t like a lot of games on the card today, but I mustered 4 picks anyway. Let’s get to it.
Lakers win (-105), 2 units: This line started favoring Utah by 6.5 at most books and it’s come all the way down to a lowly 1 point edge. I see it as the Lakers -1 in plenty of places now. After the leg injury to Donovan Mitchell last night (fortunately the X-Rays came back negative) the Jazz announced they’re sitting Gobert, Favors, and Conley for rest. Meanwhile for LAL, it looks like Drummond, Schroder, Kuzma and Morris will all play. The Jazz don’t need this game and that’s the message they’re sending with all their starters sitting out. The Lakers do need this game, as they’ve slipped to 5th overall in the Western Conference. In a good spot at home, the line tells us everything. Lakers may win by a big margin.
Pistons/Wizards over 226 (-110), 1.5 units and Bradley Beal over 28.5 points (-114), 1.5 units: The Pistons are not a good basketball team. Neither are the Wizards, for that matter. But both of these teams can still thrive on the offensive end of the court. It’s old news after I’ve typed it out 1000 times in these articles, but Washington usually makes for the perfect “over” storm. They’re one of the fastest teams in the NBA, they’re 10th overall in points per game, and they’re one of the worst defenses in the association (24th in defensive efficiency, 29th in points allowed). Led by possibly the most improved player of the year in Jerami Grant, the Pistons are young and fiery and usually very competitive against lower-tier teams. This should be a battle of pride and I lean Detroit +5, but I like the over better. When these two units faced off in 2 other contests this year, it only amounted to 198 and 211 points. So then why do I like this to go over? Bradley Beal wasn’t in either of those games. Beal also went 0-9 from 3-point land and 10-29 from the field last night. He stayed after the game to put in more work because of it. I love that. Beal should be ready to roll and make a significant difference tonight in today’s game and that should easily drive the total over.
Bucks -8 (-110), 1 unit: If this was a 5 to 6.5 point line I’d be laying more units here, but it’s just a 1 unit play at -8. Regardless, this is a beyond perfect setup for Milwaukee to win. The Bucks always struggle without their star and now not only is the Greek-freak back but Milwaukee comes into Saturday looking very healthy. Donte DiVincenzo, Jrue Holliday and Kris Middleton round up a fully healthy starting 5 tonight for the home team. After a nice win on the road against Atlanta, the Bucks got a day of rest in between and return back to the Fiserv Forum where they’re most comfortable and certainly most dangerous. The spot for Memphis isn’t as comfy. Off a heartbreaking loss to Dallas and then a fast-paced game at Chicago last night, the Grizzlies road trip continues on a back to back against one of the powerhouses of the Eastern Conference. Yikes, yowzah, etc. These are the type of games that the Grizzlies love to blow and where the Bucks love to blow-out other teams. For all the fuss we make over the Grizzlies’ defense, and it is good at 8th overall in defensive efficiency, the Bucks are better (7th according to Hollinger metrics). Milwaukee also has a considerably higher-rated offense and moves at a quicker tempo. At home, healthy and energized; that spells disaster for Memphis tonight. I’m talking myself into more units here but for now, this is a conservative one unit play on the home team. With the playoffs just around the corner, it’s time for Milwaukee to turn on the jets behind their former MVP. Expect them to impose their will Saturday.
