A fine 2-2 day Saturday winning 1 unit overall, although the Bucks really let a lot of us down last night. That was an ideal spot and just, wow. Kudos to the Grizzlies– they’re a dangerous team when they’re in-sync. Onto Sunday’s picks!
Pelicans/Knicks over 217.5 (-110), 1.5 units: We won last time when these two teams clashed when we chose the Knicks to surprise the Pelicans on the road. Not much of a surprise to me– the Knicks should win against teams like the Pelicans, i.e. teams that have virtually no defense. When the Knicks can prevail on both offense and defense, and I think they will again today, they’re hard to beat. New Orleans is playing faster and the combo of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson can be a real load to stop for 48 minutes. Steven Adams does a fantastic job rebounding and getting easy buckets, too. New York’s suffocating defense should limit the output of the Pelicans but, like their last contest, the Pelicans will attempt to push the pace of the game to gain an edge. Because I expect the Knicks to thrive on offense once again and because New Orleans’ only chance is to try and overwhelm New York on offense, this is an over play for me.
Nets -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I love the Heat and internal bias doesn’t want me to bet against them in too many spots. If they get into the playoffs, they’ll be very feisty again. This is more about the Nets, though. Like we saw in their late-game flex against Charlotte, the combination of Durant and Kyrie is really hard to stop. And although I hate to admit it, Irving’s approach is starting to impress me. Like Steph Curry did for the juggernaut Warrior teams of the recent past, Irving seems content to let Durant shine as the superstar. Totaling only 12 points, Kyrie had 6 assists and made clutch buckets when called upon in their win against the Hornets 2 nights ago. Joe Harris benefited from the Durant/Irving distraction and scored 26 on his own. And that’s what teams will have to deal with throughout May and June– a potpourri of options from a Brooklyn team that’s built on an ability to surge offensively whenever they need to on whoever they want to. Pretty scary thought. Historically, teams with a defense as bad as Brooklyn (19th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in points allowed) don’t win championships. They do win plenty of regular season games, though. Jimmy Butler is a little banged up and the Heat are really struggling to score lately, averaging 104 ppg in their last 5 contests. That’s not enough to win in the modern NBA and it won’t be enough today against Brooklyn. I’m on the Nets to cover.
Mavericks over 119.5 points (-110), 2 units: Dallas is gaining steam as the season wanes on but they haven’t done it at home lately. The Mavericks have lost 3 in a row at the American Airlines Center and I love that for this bet today. Sacramento has the worst defense in the league, allowing the most points per game and their dead-last in defensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team metrics. Like my play on the Nets 2 nights ago, this is the perfect setup for a healthy Mavericks team to put on a show, get a victory in front of home fans, and then get a rare 2 nights/3 days of rest before hosting lowly Detroit. Bet on the Mavericks to show up big in a prime spot today. Might want to consider a Luka prop, too.
Clippers -10 (-110), 1.5 units: Don’t be deterred by the Timberwolves recent win against Miami. The Heat are banged up and they were on a hellish road stretch. If anything, that rare win is more reason to bet on Minnesota not covering today. This line, although high, still isn’t accurate. The Clippers winning this by double digits is far more likely than a -110 juice. With or without Kawhi, Paul George is really starting to shine– scoring at least 33 points in 4 out of his last 7 games. He’ll lead the Clippers tonight at the Staples Center, where they crushed the Timberwolves by a 23 point margin in their last matchup. Make sure LAC isn’t playing their C team and confidently hammer this line.
