Happy Monday, people! I’m releasing this article early so don’t forget to make sure that all the key players that we expect to be in these games are actually in. Kevin Durant was a big let-down yesterday, for example, although he did suit up and then leave in the first so maybe I’ll cut him some slack. I like favorites and overs today– onto my picks!
Celtics -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: I’m waiting for this consistent Celtics team to start disintegrating again so I’m trigger shy to bet too much. At home, especially if they keep playing the way they have been on defense, this line is a sneaky steal. The latest version we’ve seen of Boston is a far better unit than Chicago. And in the few areas that Chicago thrives, mainly in fast-break team offense, the new-look Boston defense should have plenty of answers. I think the Celtics win this by double digits.
76ers -9 (-110), 1.5 units: The Warriors were really impressive Saturday night against Boston, even in a loss. I don’t think a lot of people expected Golden State to stay within reach, smack-dab in the middle of a long road trip and with a big game against Philly on the horizon. But they did, and they nearly beat the surging Celtics. It was another huge performance from Curry and another solid showing from his supporting cast as they look to earn a playoff bid in mid-May. Kudos to them and as a fan of Curry on and off the court, I hope they do make it into the postseason. I don’t think is the game to help their chances. Like I said previously, Golden State is on the final 2 legs of a long, tiresome trip out East that ends Wednesday at the Wizards. That’ll be another chance for Curry to have a 40+ game I’m sure, but if anyone can slow down Steph and the Warriors, it’s the Sixers. Allowing the 7th fewest points per game and rated #2 overall according to Hollinger’s team ratings, the Sixers are also top 10 in offensive/defensive rebounding and 5th overall in rebound rate. That’s an area where the Warriors really struggle. Golden State is 26th in defensive rebounding, dead last in offensive rebounding and 29th overall in rebound ratio. Yikes. Of course when you have the perimeter ability of a Steph Curry, rebounds might not matter as much. But the front court dominance that Simmons, Embiid and other bench players like Dwight Howard consistently impose is really tough for smaller teams like Golden State to overcome. The Sixers are tall, tough, and sharks at the rim. I think it’s a fair assumption that Steph Curry won’t be completely stifled Monday night, but I do think the Sixers can slow him down. Their guards are pretty damn good on defense, too. Philadelphia has won 4 straight and after coming back from injury, MVP contender Joel Embiid has picked right up where he left off (he’s averaging 34.5 points during their latest win streak). To many this line may feel inflated and you’re tempted to bet Golden State. To me it’s a forecast of exactly what this game will be– an impressive win by a good margin for the home team Sixers.
Suns/Bucks over 233.5 (-110), 1.5 units: If the same version of the Bucks shows up that we saw Saturday against the Grizzlies, it’ll be a quick “night night” for Milwaukee at home in this one. The Phoenix Suns are about as versatile and resilient as an NBA team gets. Their stars don’t “rest,” they’re barely ever injured (knock on wood) and they can win in a variety of different ways. Phoenix excels on both offense and defense, owning a top 5 rating in defensive efficiency and top 6 rating in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger metrics. Talk about a complete team. Milwaukee is right there with them with the 5th best offense and 8th best defense and as you know because I mention it all the time in these posts, they play at a really fast pace (4th overall in tempo). Lately, Suns’ totals have been dependent on who their opponent is. If they face high tempo teams (Sacramento, Houston, Washington), the totals have been really high. When they face slower-paced teams (Miami, New York, Charlotte), the totals have been really low. Enter Milwaukee. This should be a great battle between two legit heavyweights and as much as I want to pick the Suns, I can’t do it after what I saw from Milwaukee Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised if they looked like a totally different team and completely dominated this game. A healthy Giannis certainly helps. The Bucks will push the pace and as usual, the Suns will adapt and they won’t be left behind. Love the over.
Grizzlies/Nuggets over 227 (-110), 2 units: Another big clash between two probable playoff teams headlines Monday night, and it’s another over play for me. Lately, Grizzlies games are producing huge scores. Over their last 10 games, Grizzlies totals have averaged 232.5 points. And not all those games have been against fast-paced high-scoring teams, either. That includes contests against Atlanta, Miami, New York, and Indiana. Memphis won 7 out of those 10 matchups, by the way, so they usually contributed the higher number in that 232.5 average. This makes a good recipe for an over since the Nuggets aren’t any less prolific on the offensive end. At 4th overall in points per game (115.3) and rated 4th in offensive efficiency, the Nuggets are one of the most consistent offensive teams in the association. And for what it’s worth, their first two games without Jamal Murray hasn’t slowed them down (they scored 123 and 128 points). In what should be another intriguing matchup between two very good teams, I’d rather bet on the over.
