Well our one bet on Twitter was the Mavs/Warriors game over 222 and somehow that hit despite the Warriors unbelievably bad scoring effort in the 1st half. I haven’t checked but those had to be some historically low totals (12 points in the first quarter are you kidding me?). It was an odd night in baseball and basketball and I’m glad I at least avoided one of those sports. Onto Wednesday, where there’s a lot more opportunity on a big NBA slate!
76ers -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ve read plenty of bettors who love the Hawks tonight even without Trae Young, but I have to go the other way. Philly travels home after their get-right crushing of the Thunder and they finally have a fully healthy lineup. Harris, Simmons, Embiid, Curry– the gang is all there and after a few let-down losses to wrap up the third week in April, you won’t see me panicking about the 76ers. Second in the Eastern Conference and still one of the best teams in the NBA, Philadelphia was due for some disappointment after tearing up teams since the All-Star break. I get why some like the Hawks tonight; Bogdan Bogdanovic has played really well, especially in Young’s absence, and the Hawks are a resilient and well-coached team. While all that is true, this feels the spot and the time for the 76ers to turn on the jets and start overwhelming teams before the playoffs. The Hawks at full capacity could keep this game close– this Hawks team cannot. I’ll take the 76ers to cover.
Knicks ML and Knicks/Bulls under 209.5 (-110), 1 unit to win 2 units: When seeing this line at first I said to myself– haven’t the Knicks faced the Bulls like 4 times this past week? Then I realized it was the Heat that recently matched up against the Bulls twice; funny, the Heat and Knicks are built very similarly. They both play high quality, rough defense and they have veteran leaders who play with fearless vigor. Those are the kind of teams you like come playoff time and now that the Knicks got the pressure of a long winning streak (and ATS streak, if they care) off their backs, I like them even better in this matchup today. The Knicks are now the ATS leader of the NBA, they’re still #1 in points allowed, and they’re top 10 in point differential. When the Bulls face a team as solid as New York, who’s getting better and better on the offensive side of the ball too, Chicago can rarely match up. I’m all over the Knicks, another great game for Julius Randle, and another stifling defensive performance. Take either bet or the full parlay for a +200 return.
Lakers/Wizards under 229 (-110), 1.5 units *only if Anthony Davis plays: As long as “the brow” is playing, I’ll go with this game flying under. The Lakers were good on defense even without Lebron and Davis in the lineup. Now, still sitting atop the association in defensive efficiency, LAL heads to DC to salvage a loss they had back when Lebron was healthy in late February. Davis was missing from that contest and the game hit 252 points. All trends and stats say this game will go over, too. I mean, Washington hasn’t scored under 117 points in 9 straight games, and many of their totals soared over 120 or 130 points during their winning streak. But this line is kind of sneaky, isn’t it? If a huge total is so obvious, why does it still sit below 230? For me, this is a trust in the Lakers and their coaching bet. LAL knows they have to slow down the #1 tempo unit in the association and having Anthony Davis is a great tool to do that. The big man loves to slow down the game and post up on offense and shut down the front court on defense. Not many defenses can slow down Westbrook and Beal lately– I’ll bet that LAL can do just that for 1 humble unit.
Nuggets -4 (-110), 2.5 units: I won’t overexplain or over-examine this one. By now, hopefully you know the way I feel about these teams. New Orleans is full of potential but they get a lot of bad coaching and front-office management and because of it, they’re extremely volatile. The Nuggets are one of the sharpest and well-led teams in the NBA, even without Jamal Murray, and I don’t see the Pelicans being any match for them tonight. Steven Adams is questionable; watch out for that because that would be a huge front court loss for the Pelicans. Although I respect what the Pelicans have been able to do in some spots and I know they’re right there on the playoff bubble, this number is way too low for the true disparity that exists between these teams. New Orleans also plays very poorly on the road. I’m hammering the Nuggets tonight.
