My NBA Picks are 10-5 the last 3 days (66%)– this is a pretty crappy lineup of games today with a ton of huge favorites, but I reckon I’ve managed to find a few angles. Let’s keep stacking more wins!
Mavericks -4.5 (-110) if no Bradley Beal,* 1.5 units: The Mavericks are on their 3rd game in 4 days so there’s a chance they’re a bit fatigued here, but if no Bradley Beal, why wouldn’t I side with the Mavs to cover? Kristap Porzingis is out tonight, too, but Washington has showed little to no signs of life without their star. If Russel Westbrook can’t produce a monstrous game like he did against Indiana, the Wizards won’t be able to keep up with a Dallas team that’s finding different ways to win every night and seems to be improving every game on defense. Even more impressive– they’ve done it on the road. The Mavericks would like nothing more than to head back home and rest Sunday knowing they got a clean 4 wins in a row before the Jazz come into town. The Wizards– we’re starting to teeter on that time of year where they really don’t have much to be motivated for. I’m on the Mavs tonight, assuming Beal doesn’t play.
Cavs/Heat under 208.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a pretty simple handicap, ready? The Heat defense is getting better and better. In their last 3 contests, they’ve allowed 109, 87, and 88 points. Comparatively, the last time the Cavs broke 100 points? 10 days ago against Chicago’s inconsistent defense. In their last 4 games, Cleveland has scored 94, 75, 98, and 86. They lost all four games, by the way. The Cavaliers rank dead last in the NBA in points per game and also rank dead last in offensive efficiency. Against a healthy Miami team? They’ll be lucky to score over 90 points. Don’t overthink this. Hammer the under.
Lean, Knicks -1.5 (-110): The Knicks are starting to raise concerns as the season progresses Spring and the playoffs loom only one month away. You would think, against lowly Detroit, that the Knicks could muster a win here. They damn-sure need it.
Bucks -6 (-105), 2 units: I realize this is a back-to-back for Milwaukee on the road but it’s the second straight game in a row for the Kings, too. This line is sneaky. The Bucks really should be favored by more. I don’t care that they’re on the road 2 nights in a row either– they’re healthy and they’ll get a rare 3 days of rest after this contest. The Kings hit the road Monday and looked awful last night. Maybe I’m missing something in this line but I’ll stick with the value-opportunity I see it as. Bucks win big again.
