A little magic in that late Jazz/Suns game gave us the 3-0 record we were looking for in another great day in NBA betting for yours truly. Holding strong at our long-clip of a 58% winning percentage, we march on and try not to feel too fat and sassy about our wins. Happy Friday-Eve everyone!
Parlay, Mavericks win and Bucks/Mavericks over 226 (-110), 1 unit to win 2.38 units: What was that from the Mavericks last night? It wasn’t a good look, I’ll tell ya that. And what about the Bucks on Tuesday? The Warriors got beaten by 50 plus by the Raptors and then not only hung with but overcame Milwaukee at home. Curry dropping 41 was certainly a part of that, as well as Giannis’ lingering knee issues. I think Luka will be the story tonight. Before that debacle last night against the Rockets, the Mavericks have been on a tear lately. Standing at 7th in the Western Conference standings, Dallas won 5 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 before losing to Houston. Doncic was a huge part of their success. Luka has been routinely scoring 30-40 points and his supporting cast has been stellar, too. Hardaway Jr., Porzingis, Richardson, Finney-Smith, and others can all contribute and do so on a regular basis. Luka is never alone on offense, and it’s one reason why he really thrives. Milwaukee is one of the fastest teams in the league (3rd overall in tempo) and a top 5 offense in scoring and efficiency. In fact, no team scores more than the Bucks on a regular basis. Giannis is doubtful tonight, which obviously affects their output, but I still think the Bucks try to boat-race the Mavericks and push the pace on Dallas’ home floor. With or without the “Greek Freak,” they’re hungry for a win. And we all know Luka and company can keep pace. I think the Mavericks, who recently beat the Jazz at home, show up and get a big victory Thursday night against another elite team. The total is a bit deflated because of Giannis’ absence, so I’ll take advantage and parlay the over into it.
Suns/Clippers over 221 (-110), 2 units: The big showdown of the night is yet another Western Conference battle of elites as the Suns travel to LA to face the Clippers off a huge win against the Jazz. We got a little lucky last night when we hit the over, but I like it even more at a reduced line tonight.
The Jazz and Suns game was a terrific watch. Donovan Mitchell dropped 41, Devin Booker had 35, Rudy Gobert had an astounding 18 rebounds, and Chris Paul unsurprisingly led both teams with 9 assists but more importantly, served as court-general when it mattered most. I’ve talked about it before and I’ll say it again– the addition of Chris Paul on the Suns is something special. The Suns are virtually the same exact team as they were in previous years, except for the addition of Paul. CP3 leads like Lebron (they’re best friends for a reason) and has a moxie and leadership style similar to Kobe Bryant. He has a way of making plays in the clutch– he had the game’s 2 final points at the end of OT to seal the win, go figure– and knows how to bring the best out of his teammates. The line is appropriately favoring the Clippers by 6 points tonight. They’re healthy, off 2 days of rest and they’ve been playing great basketball on both sides of the floor. I want to lean to the Phoenix side so I’ll fade that play today.
So then why do I like the over? The Suns played magnificent defense last night. They held the Jazz to only 25% from beyond the arc and, despite my prognosis, slowed down the game and never allowed the Jazz to pull away. They also dominated at the rim, out-rebounding the Jazz 61-45. A performance like that is playoff-worthy and it’s one reason why I like the Suns in the playoffs. But they are human. Humans get tired, even pro-athletes, and I could see their defense being a little more permissive tonight. LAC is second only to the Nets in offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s metrics. They’re 8th overall in points per game, too. In the Clippers’ last game against the Blazers, Paul George dazzled with 22 points in the first quarter. He also dropped 39 on the Suns in their last battle, a game that ended right around tonight’s total at 219 points. But that was against a different Phoenix unit. The Suns are more confident and more able on the offensive end and they’ll need to be to stay within pace of the Clippers. LAC is 59.3% ATS at home, a stat that rivals the Suns’ NBA leading ATS record of 33-17 overall (66%). This should be a fantastic back and forth game, but I expect less of a war at the rim and more of a beautiful display of great shooters at a heightened pace. Give me the over!
Blazers +6 (-110), 1.5 units: Speaking of last night’s game (as I referenced a-plenty in the pick above), how well will the Jazz do tonight? I’m not so sure. That has to feel like a pretty deflating game, in a contest where you expect to win as the Western Conference’s leading team, only to get bested by one of your arch-rivals. The Jazz have now lost two in a row against their nemeses of the West and here comes another on Thursday night. And the Blazers need a win, too. Portland won 5 of their last 6 games before dropping their last contest to the Clippers, a game we knew was coming and we won a little money from, but this is a better setup for the Blazers. No stranger to and no fears of being a road warrior, the Blazers are one of the better NBA teams away from Portland, covering 60% of the time this season (15-10 overall). In recent past, they won 4 straight games on the road. Even though Utah didn’t win, the Jazz are just as beat up and exhausted as the Suns after last night. Maybe even more so since all that energy was spent and it amounted to a loss. I see a big Damian Lillard game tonight, aided by a healthy and rested unit that should come out with far more energy than the Jazz. Give me the Blazers to cover.
