Well this party really died. I got a little too cute last night with my picks, choosing to side with totals instead of the sides I knew would hit. I hit a few good parlays tailing the Mavericks and Clippers and should have just stuck to those angles here. Ah well. Our win clip means we’re due for some good redemption Friday, let’s get it.
Knicks +1.5 (-110), 1.5 units and total under 214.5, 1 unit: Two separate bets, not a parlay. This is an intriguing game between two clubs heading in opposite directions. The Knicks, although they cover frequently as a dog, can’t find a way to scrap a good win. Losers of now 5 of their last 6 contests, and not exactly against world-beaters, the Knicks have been plagued by injuries to RJ Barrett and Derrick Rose. Certainly that’s partially why they’re losing. The other part is their inability to ever pull ahead on offense. Tom Thibodeau has always been a conservative coach. He doesn’t pay much attention to rhythm, he isn’t the best schemer, and he just seems like the type of old-school guy that won’t adapt or listen to new ideas. Teams usually start to take on the personalities of their leader and that reality seems to be rearing its ugly head the last few weeks. Maybe it’s time to mix it up, eh Knickerbockers? In the last 6 games, the Knicks have only averaged 101.8 ppg. Although they’re still playing exceptional defense, rated #1 overall and only allowing 42.3% from the field in their last 5 games, they’re near the bottom in points per game and offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s team ratings. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, may be playing their best basketball all year. Looking like the complete opposite of New York, Memphis has won 5 of their last 6 games and they’re improving on both offense and defense, ranked 7th in overall defense and 16th in overall offense. And they’ve been improving against really good teams, on the road.
All that said, I think this is the spot to bet on New York. They’re at home, rested, and they’re facing the kind of opponent they can beat. Memphis does a lot of things well but they’re not overwhelming. Julius Randle and Jonas Valanciunas should be a fun battle in the front court, while Ja Morant and RJ Barrett will go head to head at the guard position. It’ll be a tough-guy contest all night and that’s why I love the under– both teams are built around their defenses– but that’s also the type of game the Knicks love to win. For all the success the Grizzlies have had, the Knicks just need it more and they’re finally set up right to take advantage. This line is sneakily telling you it’s the right side. Bet the home dog.
Celtics -8.5 (-110), 2 units: It’s hard to imagine that Boston is in the thick of the playoff race. Every time you turn on the TV and see them playing on TNT or ESPN, they’re losing. Those marquee games against Philly and Brooklyn and other great teams often find the Celtics a day late and a dollar short, and it’s evident why. I’m not sure what’s going on with Brad Stevens’ leadership but his patient, even-keel style may be phasing out. The Celtics aren’t deep but they’re starting 5 is talented– even the average fan can see that. The issue is, and it’s clear when watching their games, the Celtics’ stars seem to just run around and find an open shot. There’s no true rhyme or reason to it; it’s just unorganized street ball. And there’s no clear leader, either. That won’t work against the well-coached elites of the association and it’s proven as much thus far. Luckily, talent overrides bad competition and that’s what they’re facing Friday. The Timberwolves are one of the worst defenses in the NBA and only Cleveland and OKC out-suck Minnesota when it comes to point differential. Although talented on offense, the Celtics have more than enough prowess and gumption to stifle the 26th ranked offense (Hollinger metrics) in the NBA. On the other side of the court, Boston’s stars should thrive and be able to take advantage of a team where all hope and most of their motivations, especially on defense, are lost. The Celtics are at home off 2 days of rest before they have to travel to Denver Sunday (get ready to fade them again in that one). They can’t afford to drop a game like this. Expect them to win with ease.
Lean, Pacers -4.5 (-110): This is a wait and see who’s sitting out situation, but if most of the Pacers’ key players are in, hammer this line. The Magic are done.
76ers -6 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll keep this short because there’s really not much to it. The Pelicans could be getting healthier, watch out for pre-game updates before this game, and they are back at home, but a fully-stocked Philadelphia squad is no team to bet against right now. With Embiid back in the lineup and looking real fresh against the Celtics in their last outing, I want nothing to do with the Pelicans’ side Friday night. New Orleans’ defense has been absolutely porous. Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid and Curry and Simmons and all the weapons Philly has on and off the bench should prove too overwhelming when it matters most. The Sixers have had their perils on the road, I get that, but the Pelicans aren’t great at home either, covering only 44% (12-15) of the time at the Smoothie King Center. Zion and New Orleans will be playing catch up once again; bet Philly.
Lean, Bucks -8.5 (-110): I might sprinkle some action on this. With or without Giannis, the Bucks are the exceedingly better team and they play well at home. They need to assert themselves in a big win here.
Wizards/Warriors over 238.5 (-110), 1.5 units* (only if Bradley Beal plays): This is a high total (thanks Captain obvious) but it started at 240.5 so I’ll take the reduced line in a heartbeat. Bradley Beal made a clear difference in his return for the Wizards 2 days ago against Orlando, dropping 26 points in 30 minutes. Russ thrived in their last contest too, scoring 23 points, dishing out a jaw-dropping 15 assists, and somehow gathering 14 rebounds for yet another tripe-double. Of course this was against the God-awful Magic in a spot they had no interest in, but it’s still worthy to note. Beal is an instant stimulant for the Washington offense, just like Steph Curry is an equivalent sparkplug for Golden State. The former world-champion scored 37 and 41 points in his first 2 games back with his club, earning a win over Milwaukee in the process. The Warriors defense, for all it’s gotten credit for in the past, seems to be regressing. In spurts they can play really well, but they now sit at 24th overall in points allowed per game and 10th in defensive efficiency, both declines from weeks past. The Wizards, well, they still allow the most points in the NBA and they sit uncomfortably at 26th in defensive efficiency. Where these two squads are really similar is pace. No two teams in the NBA play faster than the Wizards and Warriors, rated #1 and #2 in tempo respectively according to Hollinger’s team ratings. As long as Bradley Beal plays, and he should, I love this game to soar over the total. With teams full of star shooters racing down the court every chance they get, I think it’s inevitable. Look at first quarter and first half lines, too, and hammer the live over if the lines drop because of a brief dip in field goal percentage. Sometime it ain’t rocket science, my friends.
