Houston, we have a problem. The tortuous Rockets kept me from another undefeated day as they choked over and over again in the game’s final minute against Miami. You could feel the angst in the air for Houston to eek out a win, but they couldn’t muster 3 straight defensive rebounds and a chance to tie the game. Brutal. We went 2-1 (8-5 overall this week) otherwise as the Celtics and Pacers cleaned up as expected. Onto my TGIF picks!
Timberwolves +4 (-110), 1.5 units: This is the second game back for Karl-Anthony Towns and the rising star admitted that he wasn’t mentally ready Wednesday when his team took on the LA Clippers. He put in a solid effort with 18 points and 10 rebounds but more importantly, Towns served as an imposing figure any time he was circling the front court. Minnesota came out hot in that game, motivated surely by their star’s return, but LAC grinded for a 7 point win. To me, that’s an impressive loss for Minnesota and a learning opportunity for Towns. Tonight the butterflies won’t be as present and I think the Minnesota star just might tear up the Hornets. The Hornets were sent to the woodshed 2 nights ago as the Grizzlies put up 23 three-pointers (whoa) and won by 14 points. I like watching Charlotte– their young, talented, and they can compete against great teams when they’re fluid. But eventually Minnesota needs a game where everything clicks and I think this is a good spot. D’Angelo Russell is questionable, but I don’t think he makes that much of a difference since Minnesota has adapted without him. Karl-Anthony Towns won’t be intimidated by Charlotte’s below-average center Cody Zeller, and Minnesota can score in bunches against bad defenses (Charlotte scores in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency). Take the T-Wolves to cover, and don’t be surprised if they win.
Knicks/Wizards under 219.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Knicks and Wizards are strange teams. New York ranks #1 in the NBA in points allowed per game and dead last in points scored per game. Meanwhile, no one in the NBA allows more points than the Wizards. To make this game even weirder, the Wizards are rated #1 in the NBA in tempo with a Hollinger pace factor of 105.9. Guess who ranks dead last in tempo? Yup, the Knicks. We’ve seen this story so many times, though. The slower-paced team usually controls and affects the game more, especially if they have excellent defense. Lately Wizards’ games have been soaring under the total anyway, so we love this spot. Look for a live-bet opportunity if the 1st quarter is close to 60 points or the 1st half is close to 120. That won’t continue.
Mavericks -3 (-110), 1 unit: Two of the NBA’s hottest teams come into Friday in a great intra-divisional Western Conference matchup between the Pelicans and Mavs. Although the Pelicans lost two days ago against Chicago, New Orleans has played terrific team basketball the last ten days, winning 4 out of 5 games against very solid teams (Phoenix, Indiana, Memphis, and Houston). The Mavericks are riding their own 3-game winning streak and they’ve also won 4 out of their last 5. This should be a testy back-n-forth game so I wouldn’t be surprised if New Orleans covers the number, but the Pelicans are just 4-8 on the road this year and I don’t like how that game ended against Chicago. The Pelicans fell off a cliff in the 3rd quarter on both sides of the ball and got outscored 40-14. Yikes. Dallas has real momentum, they’re in the middle of a 7-game home stretch, and they should be able to expose NO’s porous defense. Take the favorite.
Clippers -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This line feels off. LAC will be without Paul George tonight, but the Clippers have far more depth than Chicago, who will be without 4 front court players. I really like the way the Clippers match up tonight. Zach LaVine has been on fire this year, scoring over 28 ppg, but he’ll have to square up against the long-armed Kawhi Leonard. Good luck. The Bulls rank 3rd in tempo and love to push the pace, but they’re not particularly efficient on offense. The Clippers are a solid defensive unit who, like the Knicks, like to slow down game-tempo. The return of Patrick Beverly should make a difference, too. The Clippers face the lowly Cavaliers in 2 days, which could serve as a “rest spot” for key players, so this game sets up well for LAC to put up a great effort before returning home. Not to mention, the Clippers are simply the far better unit. Take LAC.
Jazz -2.5 (-110), 2 units: The great thing about big primetime showdowns like this is you can get a great line. Both of these teams are elite, but I really like the Jazz tonight. We’ve all seen the Bucks buckle in the spotlight before– whether it’s Giannis choking on the free throw line or his supporting cast just not showing up as he tries to carry the team. Milwaukee suffers from a bunch of B and C rated players trying to keep up with their star. The Jazz are the opposite. Utah plays exceptional team basketball, where every player knows their role and how they can contribute best. Gobert down-low, Mitchell’s explosive play-making, Ingles and Bogdanovic’s efficient perimeter shooting– it’s true poetry in motion. Winners of 5 straight, at home and off 3 days rest, the Jazz are poised and ready to make a statement. Expect them to cover.
Lean, Lakers -6.5 (-110): This is one of those “big difference in class” games and the Lakers are due for a blowout win. The Grizzlies have allowed at least 115 points in 4 out of their last 5 games, LAL wants to extend their home-winning streak, and Lebron has showed no signs of slowing down. This is only a lean because the Lakers have a big game on deck against Denver Sunday and this could be a rest-spot. Watch for injury updates prior to tip-off, but bet the Lakers with confidence if their stars are on the hardwood.
