Well if you follow me on twitter (@ChrisRFarley1), you’ve seen my recap of last night’s game and all the bad beats we experienced. Philly, Minnesota, Miami– all in fantastic spots heading into game’s end, only to blow it and let their opponents cover. That puts me at 4-5 in NBA betting for the week, which may be my first losing record in 2-3 weeks. Never too deflated to find opportunity, let’s move onto Thursday’s picks!
Raptors +6 (-115), 1.5 units: ESPN has a front-page headline that reads, “This may be the scariest team in the East.” Who are they talking about? The Bucks? The Sixers? Oh, definitely the Nets, right? No sir– they’re referring to the Tampa Bay/Toronto Raptors, and I can’t disagree with that assessment. The Raptors may be the most resilient team in the NBA and it’s because of how they play team basketball. In a league of star-driven talent, where big name players wield control over their franchises, Nick Nurse feels like one of the only coaches that still has a real impact on his squad on a night-to-night basis. It’s no surprise then that Toronto, who has relocated to Tampa for the season, has no problem competing with the best teams in the Eastern Conference and at times they play even better when they’re missing a key player. Kyle Lowry injured his ankle 2 nights ago and he’s questionable tonight, but does it matter if it doesn’t play? The Raptors are 3-0 without him this year, 5-0 if you count the games where he left early. It’s a true next man up mentality. Toronto plays with a toughness the Bucks can only dream of. My first thought on this game was to side with Milwaukee in a revenge spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won, but how can I not take the Raptors getting 6 points? The Bucks are on a 4-game slide and while it’s been against elite teams, they have real problems in pressure situations. Khris Middleton is not clutch, Giannis isn’t a pure shooter, and other contributors like Donte DiVincenzio and Jrue Holiday are too inconsistent. It’s the kind of thing that separates the big boys and playoff contenders from the pretenders. Take the Raptors to cover, and don’t be surprised if they eek out another win.
Lean- Miami -1 (-110): For all the same reasons as yesterday’s game against the Warriors, a game where the Heat absolutely should have won, I would think Miami can at least get a W tonight against an inferior Sacramento team. This is a killer road spot for Miami, but like I said before I don’t think it affects them as much as most teams. The Kings have lost 4 straight at home. The Heat are much better than their record shows and they need to get off the schneid. Step up, Miami!
Lakers -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Oh Lebron loves these spots and I love watching it. No one would be surprised if the ultra-talented Nets came into the Staples Center and knocked off LAL. Pure talent wise, it’s no denying what Brooklyn brings to the table. And that’s where we so often make a mistake in analyzing games. Guess who else has the best sheer talent? Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Judge, Patrick Mahomes, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden… I could go on and on. The Lakers have something that wins championships, just ask Brady, and that’s an incomparable leader in Lebron James. No one controls and adjusts during a game and no one facilitates and guides a team better than Lebron. In isolation, the Lakers can lose these games from time to time, but more often than not, they win. Kyrie Irving and James Harden will surely be pumped and primed up for this game against LAL. Even without Durant, I expect each of the Nets’ stars to put forth maximum effort. The difference tonight will be on defense. While Brooklyn struggles to stop anyone, which obviously doesn’t bode well against a Lakers team that’s top 10 in FG percentage and rebounding and owns the 3rd best point differential in the NBA, the Lakers are the #1 team in defensive efficiency and 2nd only to the Knicks in points allowed. Court-general Lebron will show up tonight; Kyrie and Harden are scorers, not generals. Good luck, Brooklyn.
