Yours truly was 2-0 last night, and I’m 13-6-1 the last 7 days on my NBA bets. Let’s keep this pace going!
Clippers/Nets under 243.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Nets are on a historic tear offensively, averaging over 122 ppg. What’s lost in that equation is that Brooklyn is on pace to have one of the worst defenses in modern NBA history, scoring a 119.9 rating according to ESPN, which would be the worst of all time, and allowing over 117 ppg (only the Kings and Wizards allow more). Ah, the modern NBA product– no wonder why vicious defenders of the past like Charles Barkley roll their eyes at these young guns. All fluff, no toughness. After the Nets’ last game against the Wizards, which went for 295 points (unreal), I’d say Nets totals are due for some regression to the under. And I think this is a great spot for it to happen. After a last second loss against Washington, don’t you think the Nets know they have to get better on defense? How do you score 146 points and not win? I expect Brooklyn to take their defense more seriously tonight. I also love the under because of who they’re facing. The Clippers are second only to Milwaukee in point differential, and they’re 4th best in points allowed per game (106.7). “The Claw” and company know how to shut down their opponent. Not to mention the Clippers allowed way too many points 2 nights ago against the Knicks, not exactly an offensive juggernaut, so they should be due for a little regression, too.
When the stars come out tonight, this game will have a playoff atmosphere as two of the NBA’s elite teams jockey for pride in a primetime spot. That usually amounts to stiffer defense and more nerves on offense. Taking an under in a Nets game is always scary, but I think this is a good opportunity to do it.
Pacers -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Don’t look now, but the Memphis Grizzlies are quietly on a 7 game winning streak and sitting on top of the NBA’s Southwest Division. They’re also pretty banged up. Even with all their recent wins, the Grizzlies are in the bottom third of the NBA in points per game. They have a top 5 defense, but their lack of depth means the dam will break eventually, especially against the NBA’s better offenses. Two of the more productive Memphis players, Grayson Allen and Jonas Valanciunas, are under COVID protocol and may not play tonight. This is also the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights, so unless you’re Lebron, you may start feeling some fatigue (the Grizzlies have the third youngest roster in the NBA at 24.4 years old on average–I think it’s fair to say these kids don’t have the emotional and mental toughness of a Lebron). The Pacers, on the other hand, are in a very good spot. Back home after 2 days rest, Indiana is coming off two tough losses, but they’re getting healthier. When they play well, they play as a balanced unit. They exemplified that balance against Memphis in their last faceoff and won by some margin. It’s likely they’ll miss T.J. Warren tonight, which isn’t ideal, but the Pacers need to get off the schneid and they’re in good position to do so– I’m on Indiana to cover tonight.
Blazers/Wizards over 240 (-110), 2 units: As much as I blasted the Nets for their struggles on defense and how they’re due for some regression (and more unders), I think the opposite is true for these two teams. The Blazers and Wizards have known for some time that they suck on defense, and nothing changes. Nothing changes because I don’t think they have any answers. Both of these squads rank in the bottom 5 in points allowed per game, and in the top 6 in points scored per game. Each team is full of aggressive shooters like Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Bradley Beal, Russel Westbrook, and so on, not to mention their benches that can score, too. I wish it was less predictable and felt less square, but I can’t not take advantage. Look for another over to soar as great scorers will have a ton of opportunities and openings all night.
