I’m 4-1 in NBA bets this week and should be 5-0 heading into Wednesday if it wasn’t for that insane 16 point final 55 seconds in the Clippers/Nets game (can you tell I’m still annoyed?). Let’s keep winning and putting more green paper in our wallets!
Bucks -8 (-110), 1 unit: The NBA can be understood in classes. At the top tier are teams like the Lakers, Clippers, 76ers, Nets, and the Bucks. The Pacers are a very solid team and we won good money betting on them in a great spot last night against Memphis. Now the Pacers are traveling to Milwaukee off that big win and they’re running into a Bucks team that just got off the schneid and should be rested, more confident, and very motivated to assert themselves on a middle-tier Eastern Conference team. This is another spot play for me. If this line goes up to 9 or 10 it’s too much, if it goes down to 6 or 7 I’ll bet even more on the Bucks.
76ers -7 (-110), 1.5 units: I love the way Philadelphia matches up against Charlotte. This is another difference in class, but it’s even better because of how the Sixers run their offense. Ben Simmons has looked like a freight train barreling down the court this year, and at times it’s scary to watch his athleticism. Cody Zeller is a fine center and PJ Washington is solid enough (if he plays today), but Simmons and Joel Embiid are just too talented and too big for Charlotte to control. The Charlotte Hornets are a savvy team and they’ve won as an underdog more than a few times this season, but the last two games against Philadelphia ended in double-digit losses and I don’t see why or how that doesn’t happen tonight. Barring some unanticipated “rest day” for one of Philly’s stars, I’m on the favorite to keep winning and winning by margin.
Wizards/Heat over 228.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Another Wizards game, another over for me. The Wizards are on back-to-back games tonight and that means their defense should be even more putrid than usual. We know about Washington’s woes on defense, but the Heat are also in the bottom third for points allowed, permitting over 112 ppg. The Heat can score when paired against the right opponent and the Wizards don’t show any signs of slowing down on offense. Goran Dragic returns for his second game back for Miami after a bad performance on Monday, so we expect some positive regression for him, which will only add to Miami’s offensive efficiency. The Heat are also 8.5 point favorites tonight, which tells me the Wizards should be playing catchup and pushing the 3-ball and fast-break aggressively, as usual. Maybe this is the game where a Washington game hits an under, but I can’t bet that side. Life’s too short to bet an under (especially with the Wiz-kids!)!
Lean, Rockets -7 (-110): This is a comeback spot for OKC as they got absolutely throttled by the perpetually-improving Rockets on Monday. Call me square, but I’m really becoming a fan-boy of Houston. I just love the way they play and I think they could be very feisty if they make the playoffs. I won’t bet this side tonight since it’s a better spot for OKC, at home seeking revenge, but I still favor the Rockets. They’re very fluid right now.
Knicks win (+110), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on the Knicks in a revenge spot at Chicago. The last contest was sort of a snooze-fest, at least compared to other NBA games, but the Knicks stayed in the game late after Chicago maintained a lead through most of the game. The Knicks didn’t shoot too horribly from the field against the Bulls two days ago, but they’re due for some positive regression, especially from beyond the arc (they were only 20% on 3 point shots Monday). New York is fully healthy, well-coached, and they have a significantly better defense than Chicago. I expect less efficiency from Chicago’s offense and a close Knicks win.
