The good energy continues as we’re 6-2-1 in NBA betting this week heading into Thursday night. One or two fewer bad beats and we’d be 8-1 but there’s no sense in crying over spilled milk, right? Right. Onto the next day, onto more winning!
Hawks +8 (-110), 1 unit: The Hawks are a good team that can’t seem to figure out how to win consistently at home. Dropping their last two on their home court to the Lakers (understandable) and then last night to the struggling Mavericks (due for a win), tonight they face another tough opponent at home as the surging Utah Jazz visit Atlanta. The Jazz are probably the better team on both sides of the ball, but this feels like a game where the Hawks should bring their best efforts in an effort to salvage recent failures. Their schedule gets a little easier so they won’t be looking forward to a next game, while the Jazz are at the start of a 3 game road-trip the next 4 days. Is there a chance that Utah blows out Atlanta? Sure. I think it’s much more likely that it’s a competitive game.
Warriors +2.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I’ll sprinkle some money-line action on Golden State but I love getting a few points here. The Mavericks are finally off the schneid after an unusually consistent offensive showing last night in Atlanta. Luka’s 27 and Porzingis’ 24 points helped, but it was a team effort and good for them– Dallas was definitely due for a little positive regression. They’re not as bad as they’ve looked the past month. That being said, would they be favored if they lost last night? Atlanta is a solid team but Dallas didn’t exactly shut down the Hawks– they just out-shot them, and barely. Normally the Mavericks would be favored against the Warriors in recent past, but I still don’t trust that, after 1 good game, the Mavericks are over their slump. Golden State can score in bunches and Steph Curry has been phenomenal this year– averaging over 41% from beyond the arc, 47% from the field, and over 28 ppg. There should be a lot of openings for Curry to get shots off tonight, and I like Draymond Green to at least somewhat stifle Dallas’ stars. I think this is a close game and more of a pick-em, so I have to favor the Warriors’ side. I’m not sure which way this line will move, but if it goes up to +3 or +4 on Golden State, this will be a 2 unit bet for me. I also lean over.
Rockets/Grizzlies under 223.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Houston and Memphis are in the bottom third in points per game and top 10 on defense in points allowed per game. In the last 10 games, both teams have improved on defense, allowing only 105.2 and 105.8 ppg, respectively. Houston’s showing last night was ugly, but I won’t overreact– they were due for a let-down game. This showdown has a UVA vs. Virginia Tech feel for me; who can defend better? John Wall was absent last night, which was part of Houston’s woes, but tonight it looks like Victor Oladipo will be out for “planned rest.” Last night it was obvious that Houston was trying to win with their defense, playing shorthanded without Wall, so I expect the same approach tonight. The Grizzlies have an anticipated 6 players out tonight, making their bench rather shallow these days, and are still missing key offensive players like Grayson Allen. This feels like a good setup for an under play.
