Yours truly went 3-0 in college hoops and 2-1 in NBA picks last night. My only loss was on the Hawks +8, who announced Trae Young would sit about 30-45 min before tip-off. One has to wonder if I would have been 6-0 overall if not for that (yet another) bad beat, but I still can’t complain– we’re 8-3 in NBA bets on the week and trying to stay humble and keep grinding. Below are Friday’s picks and predictions!
Pacers -1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Pelicans have been performing better as of late, with contributions from Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson taking New Orleans to a new level when they’re hitting on all cylinders. Recent wins against the Suns and Bucks have been impressive, but the Pelicans are among the most inconsistent teams in the NBA. One day they play fast and aggressive, the next they’re methodical. In some contests they look like a top tier NBA team, with explosive players on both offense and defense. In other games they get throttled by average teams and seem dumbfounded in the process. On the other hand, we know what we’re going to get from the Pacers. Indiana is a balanced team. They’re #8 in scoring per game, a mid-tier defensive unit, and top 10 in overall point differential. Last time out the Pacers got annihilated in a game where I took the Bucks side because it was such a good spot. Now Indiana, after some much needed rest, is in a better spot returning back home from Milwaukee. Ultra-consistent contributors like Brogdon, Sabonis and Turner match up well against the Pelicans’ stars, and expect some positive regression from Jeremy Lamb, who didn’t reach double digit points for only the second time in his first nine games against the Bucks. I like the more rested, more consistent, and better-positioned Pacers to bounce back with a 5-7 point win tonight.
Nets -5 (-105), 2 units: If Freddie VanFleet scored 54 points every game, the Raptors would have one hell of an offense and would probably win a lot of games. Unfortunately that’s not a sustainable recipe for success. The total in this game is set at 242 at the moment (not a surprise, Lord knows), which suggests that the Raptors will have to, like all teams that face Brooklyn, score at the pace and with the efficiency that the Nets bring to the hardwood. The final minutes of the Nets/Clippers game proved how dangerous this team can be. Harden, and especially Durant and Kyrie, have 0 nerves at the end of regulation. They’re about as good as it gets at closing out a game. Even if teams stick with Brooklyn throughout a contest, it’s likely they’ll still be facing a wide-deficit in the final 3 minutes when the Nets hit their stride. I like Toronto and how they fight, and they’re not a team to sleep on against most of the Eastern Conference, but the Nets are beaming with confidence and I don’t think this game is close. Buyer Beware: This is only an official play if the Nets play all their stars, as expected. This line is coming down a little bit so I would wait until closer to game-time to bet it. Even if I get a bad beat, I’d rather spare your bet.
Bucks -10.5 (-110), 1.5 units: It feels like the Bucks are about to go on a run and I’ll look to take advantage. Cleveland is a solid enough team, full of young improving players like Collin Sexton, but when Milwaukee is hitting on all cylinders they’re really tough to beat. The Bucks looked returned to form 2 nights ago against a good Pacers team, out-pacing and scoring them throughout the contest. The Cavs tend to overperform and play their best basketball against inferior opponents. The Bucks are not one of those opponents. Neither are the Clippers, Lakers and Celtics, all of whom recently handed Cleveland losses by margin. The Cavs are 29th in the NBA in ppg and bottom 6 in the NBA in point differential. Not a great look when you’re up against the 2nd and 1st ranked team in those same categories. Milwaukee won’t be intimidated playing at Cleveland and it’s not a big-spotlight game where Giannis tends to get lost in the lights. I like the Bucks to win big.
T-Wolves/Thunder over 218 (-110), 1 unit: Minnesota has improved on defense recently but not by much. I wanted to go with the OKC side in a better spot tonight but the Thunder are just too inconsistent lately to back. Key defenders from both of these units are still sitting out and both of these squads can score a ton of points against the right defense. This is a bottom-feeder game where up and coming stars will look to shine and dish out big solo performances. This line should at least be over 223 by my estimation, so I’ll put a small play on the over.
