It was a very solid week in NBA betting as I finished 12-8 overall, a 60% clip. Let’s continue as best we can, and I’ll try to avoid those bad beats and unsettling last minute “rest days” that can change a wager. Onto the picks!
Rockets -1.5 (-110), 1 unit: Buyer beware: The Rockets announced at roughly 2:00pm EST that John Wall will rest this one out. I still like the Rockets, but not as much as I did before. If you’ve been following my NBA articles you know I’m pretty fond of Houston this year and I can’t help it– they’re a better team without Harden, an actual TEAM, and they’re full of underrated talent. Charlotte is coming into tonight off an easy win against Washington yesterday, but between that game and the Super Bowl who knows how much rest they’ve gotten. The Hornets are a young, improving team with a lot to learn and plenty of maturation to develop. The Rockets, on the other hand, are healthy and rested and full of veteran talent. The Hornets struggle offensively against above-average defenses and Houston has been improving steadily on defense all season. The Rockets are also full of scorers like Victor Oladipo and John Wall and Eric Gordon who, when all healthy, can quickly create distance from their opponent. Houston is the better team, in a better spot, and I love how they matchup tonight.
Wizards/Bulls over 237 (-110), 1.5 units: Do the Wizards ever get a break? It doesn’t feel like it. Tonight will be a good chance for the Wiz-kids to score a rare win against an opponent who plays a lot like they do. Don’t look now, but the Bulls have one of the better offenses in the NBA. Chicago is 4th in the NBA in scoring at over 115 ppg, and like the Wizards, they have one of the worst defenses in the association (27th in points allowed per game). Yesterday’s game between Washington and Charlotte should have gone over; the Wizards couldn’t make a shot in the second half and that stunted the total. I think today’s over has an even better chance. Both of these teams routinely score in the 120s and I think they do it again tonight.
Lean- Warriors win (even): I don’t bet many San Antonio games because they’re a tough team to figure out, but this is a much better spot for Golden State. Off a disappointing loss to Dallas to finish off their double-header, the Warriors got a day off and head to San Antonio looking for some redemption. The Spurs are riding a nice little 2 game winning streak and they seem like they can beat anyone on the right day. This is an observe and take notes game for me, but it just feels like the right situation for Steph Curry to drop another 40+ and facilitate a solid team win against a mid-tier defense. I’ll watch this game with interest to see how the teams match up and game 2 should give me a better angle. If I had to bet this tonight, I’d be on Golden State.
Bucks/Nuggets over 233.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a showcase game between two of the NBA’s top offenses. Both teams rank in the top 3 in scoring per game, Jamal Murray should return, both squads love to push the fast break and get high-percentage shots, and lately Jokic and Giannis have been playing sensational basketball. It’ll be a good back and forth battle and I don’t think it’s won on defense– it’ll be won by who can pull away. This games goes into the 240s.
