Blazers +5 (-110), 1.5 units & Blazers win (+170), .5 units: I’m not sure why this line favors Houston with a full 5 points, but I think it’s recency-bias. The Rockets are on a cute little run, winning their last 3 games against teams like the Pistons (slow clap), the struggling Mavs (not impressed), and the Wizards (maybe the worst team in the association). The Blazers are off a tiring loss against the Thunder, who are better than pundits think, but they’re also coming off a full 3 days of rest. Let’s be clear: Portland still has significant struggles on defense and they’re a little banged up- maybe that’s why they’re a dog- but they still have the best player on the court in Damien Lillard, not to mention a 4-2 away record (Houston is 4-4 at home). This feels like a contrarian pick, but I’m going to sprinkle some scratch on the dog!
Lakers -7* (-110), 2 units: I actually like that the Lakers are playing after a tough loss last night. LAL nearly came back late against the 76ers Wednesday, down 10 with under 2 minutes left and going up by 1 in the final seconds. Tobias Harris scored the game-winning shot in the final blow, but LAL’s surge was impressive. I think the surge continues tonight. Be aware that Anthony Davis was nursing a knee injury last night and maybe this is a spot for Lebron to rest – but the Lakers are the significantly better team if they all play. I even like this number without Davis. After their first road loss last night, which is more a credit to Philadelphia’s inspired play, I like the Lakers to rebound in a huge way.
* The asterisk by the Lakers line is a reminder to be aware that NBA players routinely choose to sit and “rest,” and teams often announce their star players are out right before game-time. That stinks if you’ve already laid a wager, so buyer-beware: My bets are based on fully healthy rosters, in case otherwise noted in the write-up.
