Well February was a good month. My NBA Picks went 58-42 overall, which is a 58% win clip. I want over 60%– Who’s ready for March?! Let’s start hot with today’s picks:
76ers -4.5 (-110), 2 units with Embiid, 1 unit without: This bet isn’t about the Pacers, who are a solid mid-tier team, it’s about the Sixers. I handicapped this line at around 8 or 9 with Embiid playing, so I love the value we’re getting here. Even if Embiid sits out, Ben Simmons is having an incredible season and the Sixers have enough firepower to cover this line. Doc Rivers ripped into his team about their lack of effort Saturday night, blowing a game late to a Cavs team that seemed hungrier to win. If Philadelphia shows up groggy again, Indiana is more than capable of handedly beating them. Now losers of 3 in a row, the Pacers are hungry for a win, too. Last time out, the Sixers beat the Pacers 119-110 in Indianapolis. Joel Embiid didn’t play in that game either and usually Philly struggles on the road, so that’s a good sign for tonight. I think the Sixers supporting cast rises to the occasion Monday in primetime and overwhelms a Pacers team that’s not nearly as talented and still without some key players. Bet Philly.
Nuggets/Bulls over 228 (-110), 2 units: I set this total around 235 and I still leaned over. I really like this total to go over for a few reasons. Firstly, we have two young superstars in Jamal Murray and Zach LaVine, which should make for a good back and forth scoring show. Secondly, I love the way Denver matches up against the Bulls. The Nuggets are 10th in the NBA in forcing turnovers, while Chicago is 28th in the NBA in turnover percentage, coughing it up at a rate of 15.9% per possession. That should generate a ton of easy points for the Nuggets. Thirdly, I also like the Bulls matchup on offense. The Bulls play with the 6th quickest pace in the NBA. Denver, meanwhile, is still suffering from key injuries that weaken their defense (Paul Millsap and Gary Harris, specifically). It’s tough to find a Nuggets game that’s gone under 220 points lately because it rarely happens. The Bulls will enjoy some positive regression scoring tonight after being humbled by Phoenix two nights ago, too. Over, over, OVER.
Cavs +4 (-110), 1.5 units: How can I not bet against this Rockets team as a favorite? This line is dropping so bet the Cavs while you can. The ordeal with Victor Oladipo is getting worse– he didn’t play Sunday and he didn’t accept Houston’s contract extension offer, which means he could be a prime trade candidate moving forward. Houston, at home, got absolutely blown out by a mid-tier Grizzlies team Sunday night. Now the Cavs come to town riding a nice little 3 game winning streak, including an OT win at Philadelphia. Kevin Love won’t be back until post-All Star break but that’s cool with us; Cleveland is used to it. Other Cavs players like Dean Wade, Darius Garland and Collin Sexton have stepped up in big ways. Once a team I really thought could be a contender this year and fun to watch without Harden, the Rockets are in disarray right now and I have to bet against them. Give me the more energized dog.
Blazers -6 (-110), 2 units: Anticipating that the Hornets could pull off a win last night, which they did, I got this line at -6. Right now I’m seeing it at -7 or -6.5 at most books, which is a line I still like. This is a horrid spot for the Hornets. Charlotte won last night off a huge performance from PJ Washington, some late-game heroics, and some late-game flubs by the Kings. Now the Hornets have to travel from Sacramento to Portland (not as short a trip as you might think) one night later and take on a Blazers team who’s hungry for a win and at the genesis of a 4-game home stand. I’m not sure if Cody Zeller or Gordon Hayward play tonight for the Hornets. We saw the toll that took on the team last night. Every team not named the Pistons or Rockets should easily beat the Kings right now. Last time out, Portland was stifled by an aggressive Lakers defense, a game where superstar Damian Lillard received little offensive support. I expect significant improvement from the Portland offense tonight, especially against a much weaker and tired defense. Bet on the Blazers with confidence and add them as a parlay leg, too.
