What a nice start to the week as we went 3-2 overall and gave out a live bet on Charlotte that ended up hitting (man that Sacramento defense can crumble). It’s a rainy day in the Northeast and a perfect setup for more research and and more wins! Let’s get it:
Jazz win (-175), 2 units and Celtics +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Jazz/Celtics under 228 (-115), 1.5 units: We get a marquee matchup and 3 bets in one game to start our Tuesday night with the West-leading Utah Jazz traveling to Boston to lock up with a Celtics team who’s won 5 of their last 6 games. I expect the Jazz to muster some real motivation and win tonight but this should be a close battle. The Celtics are 11-6 ATS this year on their home floor and it feels like they’re finally finding a little rhythm. Their loss to Brooklyn aside, Boston has been able to accumulate good wins recently against solid teams like the Clippers, Raptors, Pacers, and the Wizards in the middle of their hot streak. Utah is in a little slump. The Jazz have won only 2 of their last 6 games– one against the Magic at Orlando and one against the despicable Rockets at home. Utah is 11-9 ATS overall on the road but they’ve dropped 4 out of their last 5 away games. Still, the Jazz are 3rd overall in offensive and defensive efficiency, 2nd in the NBA in rebounds, and 5th in effective field goal percentage– all stats that Boston can’t compare with at this juncture. Utah is the better overall team and their defense should cause problems for Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. We’ve seen what can happen when those two are slowed down– the Celtics just don’t have the depth to recoup their offense. The Jazz are on the 2nd leg of a 5 game road trip, not an ideal spot, but this is a good setup for them since their next 3 games are against lesser foes than Boston. I expect all hands and all focus on deck tonight for Utah. This feels like a game where the Jazz pull ahead by 3-4 points late into the fourth quarter and seal the win with a few free throws. I’ll take Boston’s ATS side, the Jazz to win, and the under in a game that should have a defense-centric playoff feel.
Hawks -9.5 (-105), 2 units: John Wall is undergoing knee surgery, Christian Wood has been upgraded to doubtful but still won’t play, Oladipo- I can’t figure out what he’s doing but I’m guessing he’s playing?- and the Rockets haven’t won a game since February 4th. Whew. Meanwhile, the Hawks are finding themselves. Atlanta is on a nice 5-game winning streak entering Tuesday. Contributions from Hawks’ forward John Collins combined with Trae Young’s enigmatic abilities on offense and Clint Capela’s rebounding and defensive performance has created some buzz in Atlanta. The Rockets haven’t only lost recently, they’ve lost badly. A 21 point loss to Boston, a 20 point loss to Sacramento, an insane 49 point loss to Memphis, a 16 point loss to Cleveland– this is a bad team showing no signs of improving. Houston will also host an angry Warriors team tomorrow, so it’s not like this is an ideal home spot. Short handicap, simple handicap, good handicap– give me the surging Hawks to cover.
76ers -7 (-110), 1 unit: This is a really interesting game. Do the red-hot 76ers keep their 5 game winning streak going and cover this line or do the angry Knicks seek vengeance after last night’s close-loss at Brooklyn and take it out on the Sixers Tuesday? I loved the fire I saw from Julius Randle last night. We correctly picked the Knicks to cover the spread but Randle felt he was robbed of an OT opportunity. He was right– the ball was touched by Brooklyn and that’s why he picked up his dribble– but the bigger point is what we already knew about the Knicks; this isn’t the team we know from recent past. The Knicks are fighters and they can hang with the big boys. It felt like the Nets avoided an upset last night. Unfortunately for New York, Philly is playing some of their best basketball right now. Even without Embiid, Simmons and company are trouncing one team after another. Their comfort playing at home is obvious and begs the question– is it inevitable that the Sixers will land in the Eastern Conference Finals against Brooklyn? Sure seems like it. I really love what I’m seeing from New York, but I don’t like this spot after last night’s crushing loss. This is only a one unit play since Philly plays Milwaukee tomorrow night, but I think the 76ers keep on cruising and cover this number. Their physical style of play fits an opponent like the Knicks, too, unlike the soft finesse of Brooklyn. Bet Philly.
Pelicans/Blazers over 238 (-110), 2 units: This is another handicap that’s not worth over-investigating. The Pelicans learned, again, that they’re capable of great things after they beat up LAC in a redemptive home win 2 nights ago. Well done, New Orleans; now how about we try to be a little more consistent? The Pelicans not only should play better tonight but they’ll be forced to be effective tonight. Portland is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, ranking #8 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Hollinger’s NBA Team Stats on ESPN. Guess who ranks #7? Despite their volatile nature, New Orleans. Portland and New Orleans are equally abysmal on defense, too. Only the Kings rank lower in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both of these teams are healthy. Lillard and Zion should be ready to rock. Portland is due for some positive regression on offense after a hiccup against Minnesota. And this line has moved down too far. Hammer the over.
