Well we had a 2-2 day yesterday which brings us to 9-6 on the week (60%). I keep “leaning” on sides that I should grab. Hopefully I don’t make the same mistake tonight. All in all, we keep humming at a high win rate. Read, heed, and win: Let’s go!
Lean, Wizards +11: Can’t bet on the Wizards after that let-down last night, but I also think every spot they have from here on out (until they get a win) is something I’ll look out for. The Jazz are obviously a huge upgrade in class from the Kings last night, a game in which I was shocked didn’t go over 250 points (but we hit on plenty of other live total bets on Twitter). The Jazz can clamp down and prevent the Wizards from the same liberty they experienced Wednesday, but Russel Westbrook and Bradley Beal have to be hurting for some signs of life after that tough loss. Only a lean, but I think the Wizards can keep this game close if they’re hitting on offense. They are at home, that helps.
Thunder +7 (-110), 1 unit: To be honest, I’m not entirely sure why I have a gut feeling about this one, which I know isn’t something you all want to hear. But I’ll minimize my risk with just a 1 unit bet. This just feels like the right spot for the Thunder. If Clint Capela is out tonight then it really makes a lot of sense. The Hawks couldn’t be happier with themselves recently. Winners of 6 in a row. Comeback efforts and then blowouts against teams like the Cavs and the Rockets (who a good team should blowout but, there ya go). Trae Young and Clint Capela and John Collins and others have provided consistent contributions on both sides of the floor. The Hawks seem to be finding a flow. But this is just (hard to explain) one of those games that OKC ends up winning. After all, and maybe this is where my “feeling” comes from, they’re 12-7 ATS as away underdogs. The Thunder also have a low-key very solid defense, ranking 11th in adjusted efficiency according to Hollinger’s stats. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford do plenty to lead an average offense but Clint Capela could be out tonight, which would leave a gaping hole in Atlanta’s front court. Watch for that injury update, but either way I think 7 is too many points for a feisty Thunder team who’s about to get 3 days of rest after this contest. Atlanta has a date with the Lakers in 2 nights, at the Staples Center. I’m on OKC.
Suns -10.5 (-110), 2 units: The Timberwolves continue their brutal road stretch with a 2-night doubleheader against the Phoenix Suns. Oh my. Just like 2 nights ago against the Lakers, this is a horrible spot and setup for the T-Wolves. Not only are they not equipped to take on a complete team and big boy like Phoenix but the matchup itself is terrible. Minnesota is equally bad on both sides of the court, ranking 26th in offensive AND defensive efficiency in Hollinger ratings. And then there’s Phoenix, an ascending team with arguably a top 2 NBA leader in Chris Paul and they rank #8 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re one of the most well-balanced units in the NBA and their pace will be really frustrating for Minnesota tonight. If the Timberwolves have any chance, it’s in their ability to drive the ball quickly and stimulate the game’s tempo. The Suns are savants at controlling the pace (again, it’s a Chris Paul thing… also a defense thing). This line could go up to 13 and I’d like it. Give me the Suns to easily cover.
Pelicans/Blazers first half over 121 (-110), 2.5 units: Remember 2 nights ago when DAME-TIME did it again? Me too, and I won a ton of money because of it (actually because of the 72 point fourth quarter but that was mostly because of Lillard and Portland). In case you haven’t heard, Damian Lillard is one of the most dominant scorers in the NBA. It’s rare you see a player in today’s NBA capable of putting a team on his back behind confident 35 foot catapult shots. Unless your name is Steph Curry. But even Steph is more a facilitator. Lillard prefers the electricity of his own talent and it may be the reason why Portland never goes too far in the postseason– Dame Time eventually runs out. Regardless, the pace and scoring of these two teams was exactly what we thought it would be. Do I think they’ll have newfound answers for it tonight? No. But there is a chance, like we saw last night in the Kings/Wizards game, that the scoring slows down in the second half just out of raw exhaustion. Playing at that pace and with that output can tank a team quick. Expect Zion to come out on fire again (I also bet on them winning the 1st half) and for New Orleans to push the pace and the totals over. That’s what worked thru the first 3 quarters Tuesday night. Again, when the Pelicans take their foot off the gas, they lose. Can we stop the madness, New Orleans? Bet the over!
Lakers -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I think the Hornets are a good team, not great, and the Lakers are a little beat up still, but this spot is just too awful for Charlotte. The 5 game road trip for the Hornets includes: Denver last night, LAL tonight, LAC Saturday, San Antonio Monday, and then likely an easy win next Wednesday against Houston. Off a back to back and a beat-down by Denver, could Charlotte get up for this one tonight and play over their heads? Sure. But LAL is getting healthy, they’re 13-8 at home, and King Lebron may want to sprinkle a little GOAT-dust on young buck LaMelo Ball (GOAT dust??? Idk).. in other words, he may want to impose his will more than usual. This feels like a reduced line; the Lakers can surely beat Charlotte by 3+ possessions. I’m on the Lake-show.
