What a weird night in the association Thursday. The Suns and Jazz looked very average and got overwhelmed by vastly inferior opponents, and somehow the Pelicans/Blazers game didn’t reach 200 points. Weird, weird, and more weird. It’s okay though, we’re 10-9 on the week, still a winning record, and now we’re out for some revenge. Let’s try not to be blindsided by the madness of college hoops and get some more wins in the NBA:
Celtics -7 (-110), 2 units: The Celtics tend to do this. They go on long runs where they look like an elite team, only to then go on ice-cold streaks where they lose chemistry and confidence. The truth is, they haven’t looked good for weeks. They got humbled by the Nets, beat a banged up Raptors team by a slim margin, beat the league-worst Rockets, and then fell to Utah and Cleveland. And now rumors are circulating that Brad Stevens might be leaving to coach Indiana. Not so fast my friends, not so fast. When addressing reports that Brad Stevens could be making the big move, sideline reporters and beat writers in Boston laughed it off. @GoodmanHoops reported that nothing seems out of the ordinary. The Celtics are healthy, practice was normal, they’re at home, and Sacramento is a good team to regain some camaraderie. Boston’s defense is the main reason behind their current slump. In their last 5 games, the Celtics have allowed 117.4 ppg. The only game that a team didn’t eclipse 117 points against Boston?– the hapless Rockets. While that may seem like an angle to play on, I think it’s an angle to play against. Brad Stevens knows they need to improve on defense and that’ll be their focus tonight. Sacramento is probably the worst defense in the NBA, ranking last in Hollinger’s adjusted defense efficiency ratings and 29th in the association in points allowed per game. But Sacramento can hang with most teams on offense and we’re pretty certain Boston is aware of that. De’Aaron Fox and other Kings’ contributors are 10th in offensive efficiency and 8th in ppg. The Celtics will need to flex some true defensive improvement to cover this line tonight and I’m betting that they will. It helps that Sacramento has to turn around and face Philadelphia tomorrow night, another leg on a long arduous road trip for the Kings. Bet Boston to cover.
Lean, Rockets -1.5 (-110): If you know my history with Houston, you know I can’t make this bet. But this is about as good a spot as it’s going to get and as good a chance as Houston has to eke out a win. The Rockets are now losers of 18 straight, EIGHT-TEEN STRAIGHT, but they should look a little different with Christian Wood. The big power forward left a huge gap in Houston’s front court, particularly on defense. He returned on Wednesday in his first game back against Golden State but Detroit should make for a much easier matchup. The Pistons are coming off a rare win against Toronto and the Rockets are at home. And in case you’re unaware, Detroit is not a good basketball team. The books are favoring Houston by a lackluster 1.5 points. Rockets– are you gonna step up?
Grizzlies -7.5 (-110), 1 unit: Memphis is a deep team capable of making a run in the playoffs and I’m not deterred by a few of their recent losses. They were in a bad spot against Denver when the Nuggets really wanted a win (and still only lost by a point) and who hasn’t gotten blown out by the Suns? They squeaked by the Heat 2 nights ago and even though that game featured horrible offense across the board, the Grizzlies’ defense is really impressive. The stats are starting to reveal as much. Ranked 10th in points allowed per game and 7th in defensive efficiency, the Grizzlies are one of those rare teams that can push the pace on offense and then turn around and stymie their opponents’ scoring chances. I wanted to go with Golden State tonight, but this isn’t a good situation for the Curry-less Warriors. Without Steph last year, the Warriors were a below-average team who struggled to score. Everyone knows that Steph can drop dimes from everywhere on the court but few realize how good of a facilitator and leader he is. The Warriors will have to search for answers on offense today and this isn’t the ideal first opponent to do so. Memphis is in an ideal position at home, hosting Golden State in back-to-back games. Bet on the Grizz to cover.
Nuggets -7 (-110), 2 units: Denver faced Chicago on March 1st and got a nice 6 point win over the Bulls at the United Center. I think this one will look a little different. The Nuggets are starting to hum. Winners of now 7 of their last 8, Denver finds themselves on a nice little homestay as they welcome in Chicago tonight. And welcome they will. The Bulls are really, really struggling in their front court defense. Centers Wendell Carter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen can’t find a rhythm on either end of the floor and Zach LaVine, although big for a shooting guard and feisty on defense, struggles to hold his team afloat against solid competition. Denver is healthier than they’ve been all year and with a line that’s only slightly over 2 possessions, I love them to cover.
Suns -11 (-110), 1 unit and Game Under 232 (-110), 1.5 units: Chris, you’re attacking this game again and betting on the Suns to cover after blowing last night’s game? Yup. And I like the under even more. Check out my analysis yesterday but I hope my reasons are obvious. Sometimes a game like this isn’t worth overanalyzing. Phoenix is at home for the second night in a row and last night’s loss had to be humbling. The Suns have veteran leadership in Chris Paul and last night’s defensive performance wasn’t emblematic of the way they usually play. As far as the total goes, look at the way the Pelicans/Blazers game went last night. I overlooked a good angle in that game– teams who explode offensively and then play in a double-header often tend to slow down in the second contest. I wish there was more data on that, but anecdotally I’ve seen it plenty. Like the Lakers or Knicks or Jazz would be, the Suns must be particularly bothered by the 70 points they allowed in the second half last night. They’ll correct that tonight. They better, because they have LAL on deck for a big Sunday showcase game.
