Oh yea! Finally we have a full slate of NBA action and I’m here for it! We’re flying high at a 60% win clip but let’s shoot for 70% cuz why the hell not?! Follow me on Twitter, send any thoughts or questions my way, and look out for live bet opportunities. Onto the picks!
Nets -2.5 (-105), 1.5 units and Celtics/Nets over 232.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a good Eastern Conference clash for the first game back from the break. Both of these units come in hot, with Boston winning 4 straight and the Nets winning a wild 10 out of their last 11 games. Kyrie Irving basically held Team Durant on his shoulders at the All-Star game, only to get bested by Team Lebron (not a shocker). I don’t think the break or All-Star game have any real implications here, but only thing it may help with is scoring. Harden and Irving and Tatum and Brown were able to warm up their shooting muscles in an easy environment this past weekend, so there shouldn’t be any lack of rhythm. It wasn’t long ago that the Celtics were one of the most disappointing and unpredictable teams in the association. Boston is a solid enough unit, but they’ll be chasing the Nets’ throughout this game. They’re lucky Durant isn’t back yet. Expect a high-scoring affair to go Brooklyn’s way as they continue to assert dominance in the East.
Pelicans -8.5 (-110), 1 unit and T-Wolves/Pelicans over 238: This is not a good matchup for the Timberwolves after the break. Maybe Minnesota sees a little resurgence eventually, but not here. New Orleans feeds on porous defenses like the T-Wolves, especially when they can play with pace. Minnesota plays at a quick tempo (ranked 3rd in the NBA) but they’re unable to stop anyone (ranked 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency). That’s not a great combination for any unit but it’s even worse going up against a healthy Zion and Pelicans’ team that only plays with pace when they’re forced to or when it’s obviously to their advantage. They’ll use it today. Expect a lot of fast breaks and a ton of scoring. This feels like a 131-116 type of game.
Lean, Knicks +11 (-115): 90% of the time I’m going to be against the Bucks in a game like this, but today it’s only a lean so I can watch and see what happens. Make no mistake, Milwaukee loves to beat up on inferior teams on their home court. That’s how they get by and stack up wins. This line is saying that the Knicks are still one of those inferior NBA teams– nut uh, that’s no longer the case. New York definitely doesn’t play as well away from their home court (61% at home, 52% ATS on the road), but I like the way they match up against virtually every opponent. Milwaukee is no different. Julius Randle plays with an attitude and Nerlens Noel won’t be afraid of Giannis in the front court. This is an interesting game to pay attention to. Don’t be shocked if New York plays this very closely.
Warriors/Clippers under 230 (-110), 1.5 units: You may not think it but Golden State is rated #5 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Clippers are also very proficient on defense, allowing the 6th fewest ppg. All hands are on deck for LAC in this one and when healthy, LAC prefers to go at a methodical, calculated pace (which is basically the way Kawhi plays so this isn’t too shocking). That’ll make the Warriors uncomfortable. Golden State plays with one of the quickest tempos in the NBA, second only to Washington. The Clippers? Near the bottom at 27th, meaning they play slow. LAC is favored by 7, which tells us the Clippers should be able to control this game and fend off the Warriors attack– this is a great recipe for an under play!
Suns -4.5 (-110), 2 units: Is Chris Paul playing his best basketball ever? One of the NBA’s OGs did whatever he wanted at the All-Star game. Of course it was the All-Star game, but Paul is playing with a confidence and court-general persona that’s really cool to watch. He’s the key reason why the Suns, whose roster doesn’t look any different other than adding Paul this year, are so tight-knit and successful this season. They’ll be a tough team to beat in the playoffs, too. Both Portland and Phoenix come into tonight’s game on nice winning streaks. The issue with Portland is their recipe for success falls way too squarely on the shoulders of Damian Lillard. As talented and enigmatic as he is, Portland won’t be able to overcome championship defenses like the Suns. Phoenix wears you down on both ends of the court with effective passing and ball movement on offense (directed by C. Paul) and hustling, annoying defenders on the other end. If Lillard can’t take over this game, and I don’t think he’ll have a chance to, this will easily go the Suns’ way. Devin Booker was questionable yesterday but was given the green light earlier today. Take Phoenix with confidence.
