Yes yes, there’s still pro-basketball! And you can still win money off it, too. After a nice break yesterday (needed), we carry on to our winning ways in the association. Onto my Monday picks!
Spurs -5.5 (-110), 2 units and Hornets/Spurs under 224 (-105), 1 unit: This is perfect positioning for San Antonio and not so much for Charlotte. The Hornets enter Monday night on the second to last leg of a horrifically long road trip. As if losing LaMelo Ball for the season wasn’t enough, they just lost at Denver and Los Angeles twice (once per LA squad). So basically, they had a 3 game road stretch against the best teams in the Western Conference; no big deal. The Spurs just lost at Milwaukee, as most teams do, but head into tonight’s contest mostly healthy. DeMar DeRozan returned 3 nights ago to help a young San Antonio squad earn a victory over the Cavaliers. The Spurs, although relatively inexperienced, are a gifted unit that feeds on teams like the Hornets. The last game on Charlotte’s hellish road trip is 2 nights away against the Rockets– that’s a team they can handle– which makes me wonder how excited or motivated they’ll be tonight after losing their young gun. Without LaMelo facilitating, the 10th ranked San Antonio defense should be able to control the pace of the game at their home court. Fade the Hornets.
Raptors -9 (-110), 1 unit: Uhhmm.. why wouldn’t I take this bet? I’ll give some respect, if you want to call it that, to an extremely desperate Rockets team at home, but yea, it’s not looking good for Houston. The poor, hapless, aimless, pathetic Rockets have now lost 20 straight and they might be my worst take ever. Two months ago I proclaimed that Houston was a team I thought could really start surging. With Christian Wood in the lineup, they were playing stifling defense and effective offense and went on a nice little run that found them at 11-10 overall. I liked them as a sleeper without James Harden, something I thought could revitalize the team. Things didn’t work out that way. Now the Rockets head into tonight without John Wall and Victor Oladipo. Even with their two stars playing, they suck on offense. They’re last-place adjusted offense rating on Hollinger’s team statistics speaks to that reality. Toronto has lost 8 in a row themselves but much of that was because of the almighty COVID-effect. The Raptors are getting healthy and look to avenge a bad loss against Cleveland. Take the Raptors to start finding a rhythm and cover this number.
Lean, Grizzlies -2 (-110): This is a watch and observe game for me but, in short, the Grizzlies are a solid, ascending squad at home and the Celtics look lost, once again. I’m not sure what’s going on in Boston but I damn sure don’t want to bet their side.
Bucks -5 (-110), 1.5 units: Chris LaVert seems to have revitalized the Pacers, even if he’s not playing his best ball just yet. Indiana’s two recent wins against a burgeoning Heat team, in Miami, was really impressive. Meanwhile, the Bucks are white hot and undefeated since the All-Star break, although they’re only 2-3 ATS. But that doesn’t bother me since this feels like an incorrect and overly reduced line tonight. The Pacers continue to perform as the above-average (but not elite) team they are. Sabonis, Brogdon, LaVert and others bring a balanced and effective unit capable of staying in games against the majority of NBA teams. Until they contend with an elite. A fantastic stat from Clutch Points expands on this: Indiana hasn’t shown they can keep up with high-powered offensive teams. Against squads that average 115 or more points per game, the Pacers are a dreadful 1-9. The average margin of their nine losses is 10.8 points. We’ve seen this story before. The Bucks are extremely good on their home floor and they average 119.5 ppg. Although I like what Indiana is building and I’m not a big Bucks fan, I expect the home team to take care of business at Fiserv Forum. PS: Milwaukee is 16-5 straight up at home and as a home favorite, they’re 12-9 ATS (57%)– the Bucks are the right side.
