Well I won’t be betting on every NBA game tonight– that’s a long-term losing strategy that action junkies embrace– but that philosophy went well last night! I was 5-1 overall, including that Philly/over parlay, and feel like I should have gone 6-0 but Portland blew a great spot. The Blazers remind me of the Pelicans in that way– enigmatic stars, high-powered offense, but full of volatility. Either way, 5-1 is a damn good night. Onto Wednesday’s picks!
Pacers -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Well to say Indiana was sorely disappointed by their performance 2 nights ago would probably be a grand understatement. After riding high following 2 impressive wins at Miami, the Pacers traveled to Milwaukee and got punked by the Bucks. And that was without Giannis. That’s kind of the story of Indiana though, isn’t it? The Pacers, like the Knicks, beat up on low to mid-tier teams and I’m sure they’ll make the postseason. They’re full of potential and very balanced, owning the 18th best offense and 13th best defense according to Hollinger’s team ratings. Unfortunately, the Pacers are also a bad ATS team. Look at any angle and across the board, whether at home, following a loss or overall, they’re not great at covering the number. That being said, the Pistons are 2-8-1 in their last 11 games at Indianapolis. They’re also one of the worst teams in the league and we may be entering “white flag season;” I could see the Pistons just quitting in a lot of games. Detroit has a laundry list of injury designations, too. Besides TJ Warren, the Pacers are healthy and looking for a little comeback after 2 nights ago. A mere 2+ possession seems low when taking all that into consideration. I’m on Indy.
Upset Watch: Lean, Toronto wins (+130): If you think a line is sneaky, you’re probably right. I think Toronto could win this game tonight. The Raptors have now lost 9 straight and seem to be spiraling, right? Perhaps to the naked eye. But the Raptors have been devastated by COVID and random injuries. Now the entire team is healthy and they’re back at home. I think Denver is one of the NBA’s elite teams but this is an IDEAL spot for the Raptors. Watch for the upset here.
Celtics/Bucks over 230 (-110), 2 units: Lately the Bucks have been absolute lightning at home. In the past 5 games, they’ve averaged 125.4 ppg and it hasn’t been against bad defenses. They just dropped 140 at home against Indiana, WITHOUT Giannis, and recently scored 134 points against the Knicks. I’m not sure if Giannis is playing tonight but that doesn’t matter to me. Milwaukee averages 120 ppg, which is second only to the Nets, and Boston has really struggled on defense lately. Injuries to Romeo Langford and Tristan Thompson haven’t helped. The Bucks also play at the 3rd quickest tempo in the league and they’re 4th in offensive efficiency. The Celtics defensive statistics are dropping by the day, now ranked 21st overall in adjusted efficiency (all of these stats courtesy of Hollinger’s team ratings on ESPN). I’ll be hammering this over tonight. Might be a good look to parlay a Bucks ML with the over, too.
Nets +6 First Half Only (-110), 1 unit: This is just too many points. Obviously I get why the line stands where it does, with Utah at home and Brooklyn off a nice win last night against Portland (and a brutal road schedule, too). But still, a double[digit line on Brooklyn as the dog? Naa. I don’t think Blake Griffin sitting out makes much of a difference and we’ve seen Harden and other playmakers take this team on their shoulders. Hell, Harden may be better without the other stars. He loves being in the spotlight. I’ll take the first half line instead of the full game since the Jazz, being the healthier and situationally advantaged team, could very well pull away later in the game. The Nets are too good on offense to not keep it close, though.
Mavericks -8 (-110), 1 unit: I’m a little gun-shy on this one so it’ll just be for one unit. Dallas is quietly on a tear right now. Winners of 7 of their last 10, the Mavericks are set up well for a playoff run. They’re also improving steadily, now ranking in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and showing some signs of life on defense, too. And Luka Doncic is closing in on becoming another MVP contender. The Slovenian star has averaged 35.5 points in his last 4 games and it seems the reappearance of Kristap Porzingis has really helped his output. The Timberwolves are at home for their next few games so they should be comfortable tonight, but the Mavericks have looked great. Not to mention– Minnesota is TERRIBLE on defense and very inconsistent on offense. I’ll put a unit on Dallas.
